California:
No, the recent survey of the Golden state from Survey Monkey and the LA Times (via Pollster) did not do anything but reinforce the fact that California is still reliably blue at the moment. And given the consistency of even the early state-level polling, that is not likely to change.
Iowa:
Over in first in the nation territory, the first new polling in Iowa since January continued to show a close race. The range established in the scant survey work thus far in the Hawkeye state is from tied to Clinton +8 and this PPP poll falls right in between. However, the bottom line in Iowa is that for a battleground state there just is not a lot of 2016 data with which to work. However, this poll displaces the tied poll as the most recent in the FHQ graduated weighed average for Iowa and widens the margin in Clinton's direction enough to pull it off the Watch List. Iowa is no longer within a percentage point of shifting across the partisan line into the Toss Up Trump category.
Virginia:
The picture in the Old Dominion is not significantly different from Iowa. The very earliest 2016 polls in Virginia demonstrate a bit more distance between Clinton and Trump than the more recent polling conducted in the time since both virtually wrapped up their respective nominations. That set of polls shows a state consistently in Clinton's column but one firmly in the Toss Up area. The newly released PPP survey did little to change that.
It is worth mentioning that these state-level polls -- especially those in traditionally competitive states -- have not shown the growth in Clinton's lead as in the national polling. The former secretary's consolidating of the Democratic base is evident there, but has not clearly stretched to the state level. But it is still early and polling has been pretty light in the post-clinch period of the race.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
WA-12
(158)
|
NH-4
(245)
|
GA-16
(164)
|
SD-3
(53)
|
VT-3
(10)
|
MN-10
(168)
|
PA-20
(265)
|
MS-6
(148)
|
ND-3
(50)
|
MD-10
(20)
|
WI-10
(178)
|
VA-133
(278/273)
|
UT-6
(142)
|
NE-5
(47)
|
RI-4
(24)
|
NJ-14
(192)
|
OR-7
(285/260)
|
AK-3
(136)
|
AL-9
(42)
|
MA-11
(35)
|
NV-6
(198)
|
FL-29
(314/253)
|
IN-11
(133)
|
KY-8
(33)
|
IL-20
(55)
|
MI-16
(214)
|
IA-6
(320/224)
|
SC-9
(122)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
NY-29
(84)
|
NM-5
(219)
|
OH-18
(338/218)
|
TN-11
(113)
|
WV-5
(19)
|
DE-3
(87)
|
CT-7
(226)
|
AZ-11
(349/200)
|
MT-3
(102)
|
ID-4
(14)
|
CA-55
(142)
|
CO-9
(235)
|
NC-15
(364/189)
|
TX-38
(99)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
KS-6
(241)
|
MO-10
(174)
|
LA-8
(61)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Virginia is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List loses Iowa from the previous (6/15/16) update.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Tennessee
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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