Washington:
The good news is that there is now polling data from Washington. However, that poll -- from Public Policy Polling -- was not all that revealing. In fact, it is the most Washington poll of Washington polls. Both the candidates' positions and margin are entirely in line with the majority of the polling in the Evergreen state over the last two cycles. Take for instance, PPP's June 2012 survey of Washington: Obama 54, Romney 41. The first glimpse of Washington 2016, then, shows a race squarely in the same low double digits (Democratic) area it has been.
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
MN-10
(156)
|
NH-4
(245)
|
GA-16
(164)
|
SD-3
(53)
|
VT-3
(10)
|
WA-12
(168)
|
PA-20
(265)
|
MS-6
(148)
|
ND-3
(50)
|
MD-10
(20)
|
WI-10
(178)
|
VA-133
(278/273)
|
UT-6
(142)
|
NE-5
(47)
|
RI-4
(24)
|
NJ-14
(192)
|
OR-7
(285/260)
|
AK-3
(136)
|
AL-9
(42)
|
MA-11
(35)
|
NV-6
(198)
|
FL-29
(314/253)
|
IN-11
(133)
|
KY-8
(33)
|
IL-20
(55)
|
MI-16
(214)
|
IA-6
(320/224)
|
SC-9
(122)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
NY-29
(84)
|
NM-5
(219)
|
OH-18
(338/218)
|
TN-11
(113)
|
WV-5
(19)
|
DE-3
(87)
|
CT-7
(226)
|
AZ-11
(349/200)
|
MT-3
(102)
|
ID-4
(14)
|
CA-55
(142)
|
CO-9
(235)
|
NC-15
(364/189)
|
TX-38
(99)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
KS-6
(241)
|
MO-10
(174)
|
LA-8
(61)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Virginia is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List remains unchanged from the previous (6/16/16) update.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Tennessee
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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