Arizona:
The Grand Canyon state is one of those states that Democrats have mentioned the last few cycles as a state that could turn blue because of the growing Hispanic population there. However, it usually comes off the wish list as fall approaches and the focus shifts toward a narrower set of battleground states. A Trump nomination on the Republican side may change that sequence. May. Without additional polling, it is difficult to tell at this point. There have only been a handful of surveys in Arizona, and the most recent one from OH Predictive Insights has Trump at his high water mark in general election polling in the state. The firm has him at 42 percent and trailing Clinton. Not the best combination. But just so this note is somewhere in this update: It is early and more polling is needed. That goes for the following states as well.
North Carolina:
There have been 12 polls out of the Tar Heel state in 2016 and exactly half of them have been from North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling (including the latest). The Democratic-leaning firm has consistently shown a tight race between Clinton and Trump for the state's 15 electoral votes. There is something to be said about that consistency, but the rest of the polling in the state has been a mixed bag of results that seem to indicate wild fluctuations (Civitas) or a house effect that tilts in Clinton's direction (Elon). Without the PPP surveys, the Elon polls push the FHQ graduated weighted average in North Carolina more toward Clinton than is the case with them included. Clinton's advantage grows from around a point with the PPP polls to a little more than two points without. The key in the Tar Heel state is getting more polling -- like everywhere else -- but also a greater diversity of poll(-ing firms).
| Changes (June 23) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Strong Trump | Lean Trump | |
The Leland Beatty poll of Texas is not really worth dwelling on. Yes, it is the first publicly available survey data out of the Lone Star state in 2016, but the poll comes from a firm that had no polls released in either 2008 or 2012. A Republican +7 margin is not unheard of in Texas, but nearly a third of the survey respondents were unsure. Those seem to have come disproportionately from Trump's support.
Those folks are Rs likely to come home by November, but not before making Trump work for it.— Josh Putnam (@FHQ) June 22, 2016
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
MN-10
(156)
|
NH-4
(245)
|
GA-16
(164)
|
SD-3
(53)
|
VT-3
(10)
|
WA-12
(168)
|
VA-13
(258)
|
MS-6
(148)
|
ND-3
(50)
|
MD-10
(20)
|
WI-10
(178)
|
PA-203
(278/280)
|
UT-6
(142)
|
NE-5
(47)
|
RI-4
(24)
|
NJ-14
(192)
|
FL-29
(307/260)
|
AK-3
(136)
|
AL-9
(42)
|
MA-11
(35)
|
NV-6
(198)
|
OR-7
(314/231)
|
TX-38
(133)
|
KY-8
(33)
|
IL-20
(55)
|
MI-16
(214)
|
IA-6
(320/224)
|
IN-11
(95)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
NY-29
(84)
|
NM-5
(219)
|
AZ-11
(331/218)
|
SC-9
(84)
|
WV-5
(19)
|
DE-3
(87)
|
CT-7
(226)
|
OH-18
(349/207)
|
TN-11
(75)
|
ID-4
(14)
|
CA-55
(142)
|
CO-9
(235)
|
NC-15
(364/189)
|
MT-3
(64)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
ME-4
(146)
|
KS-6
(241)
|
MO-10
(174)
|
LA-8
(61)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 280 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List adds North Carolina to the the previous (6/21/16) update.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Tennessee
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Utah
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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