Michigan:
Polls in the Great Lakes state have spent the last couple of weeks or more narrowing. However, all of the oscillating the polling there has forced in the FHQ graduated weighted average has been confined exclusively within the boundaries of the Lean Clinton category (5-10 points). The latest survey from Mitchell Research does little to change that trend line. The secretary's +6 in the poll is on the lower end of that range, but is still within that range. Often talked about as a Republican takeover opportunity, Michigan is one of those states that narrows in the summer and gets left by the wayside in the fall once the campaigns narrow their focus to the most competitive battlegrounds. Michigan is there again in 2016, but the question now is whether it breaks from the above pattern from the last two or three cycles. So far the answer is no. It remains a reach for Trump at this point (just off the Watch List below).
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
WA-12
(164)
|
NH-4
(253)
|
KS-6
(158)
|
LA-8
(55)
|
VT-3
(10)
|
NJ-14
(178)
|
PA-203
(273/285)
|
UT-6
(152)
|
SD-3
(47)
|
MD-10
(20)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
IA-6
(279/265) |
AK-3
(146)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
RI-4
(24)
|
OR-7
(195)
|
FL-29
(308/259) |
MO-10
(143)
|
ID-4
(41)
|
MA-11
(35)
|
NM-5
(200)
|
NC-15
(323/230)
|
IN-11
(133)
|
NE-5
(37)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
CT-7
(207)
|
OH-18
(341/215)
|
TX-38
(122)
|
AL-9
(32)
|
DE-3
(93)
|
ME-4
(211)
|
AZ-11
(197)
|
SC-9
(84)
|
KY-8
(23)
|
NY-29
(122)
|
CO-9
(220)
|
NV-6
(186)
|
TN-11
(75)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
IL-20
(142)
|
MI-16
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
AR-6
(64)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
MN-10
(152)
|
VA-13
(249)
|
MS-6
(164)
|
MT-3
(58)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Tennessee
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Utah
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (7/21/16)
2016 Republican National Convention Presidential Nomination Roll Call Tally
The Electoral College Map (7/19/16)
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