Ohio:
As tempting as it might be to suggest that Donald Trump received a bump coming out of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, the story is more complicated than that. At the state level, the first post-convention survey comes out of convention host Ohio from Public Policy Polling. Compared to the firm's survey of the Buckeye state a month ago, Trump is seemingly up (and Clinton down).
That is "seemingly" because it is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. A month ago Clinton led Trump in the Ohio PPP poll 44-40. The new poll -- at least the version of it that is getting the most attention -- has Trump ahead 42-39. But the June poll only surveyed a two-way race. The Trump +3 poll from July is a multi-candidate result including both Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. PPP did also ask the head-to-head question and found a 45-45 tie.
In other words, Clinton barely budged in the last month through the PPP lens and Trump exceeded what has often been viewed as his ceiling (40%) in polling both nationally and at the state level. That is a bump to be sure, but represents a drawing even rather than Trump surpassing Clinton. It remains to be seen whether this pattern will hold in other post-RNC polling.
The addition of the new Ohio poll does nothing to lodge the Buckeye state from its current position on the Electoral College Spectrum below as the closest state on the Democratic side of the partisan line.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
WA-12
(164)
|
NH-4
(253)
|
KS-6
(158)
|
LA-8
(55)
|
VT-3
(10)
|
NJ-14
(178)
|
PA-203
(273/285)
|
UT-6
(152)
|
SD-3
(47)
|
MD-10
(20)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
IA-6
(279/265) |
AK-3
(146)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
RI-4
(24)
|
OR-7
(195)
|
FL-29
(308/259) |
MO-10
(143)
|
ID-4
(41)
|
MA-11
(35)
|
NM-5
(200)
|
NC-15
(323/230)
|
IN-11
(133)
|
NE-5
(37)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
CT-7
(207)
|
OH-18
(341/215)
|
TX-38
(122)
|
AL-9
(32)
|
DE-3
(93)
|
ME-4
(211)
|
AZ-11
(197)
|
SC-9
(84)
|
KY-8
(23)
|
NY-29
(122)
|
CO-9
(220)
|
NV-6
(186)
|
TN-11
(75)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
IL-20
(142)
|
MI-16
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
AR-6
(64)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
MN-10
(152)
|
VA-13
(249)
|
MS-6
(164)
|
MT-3
(58)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Tennessee
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Utah
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Democrats' Unity Reform Commission
The Electoral College Map (7/23/16)
The Electoral College Map (7/21/16)
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