| Changes (July 27) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Toss Up Trump | Lean Trump | |
Kansas:
One could say that there was one outlier poll early on in Kansas that has made the race in the Sunflower state appear closer than it actually is. And while true, that does obscure just how much Trump is currently underperforming Romney 2012 there. That is again the case in the new poll out of Kansas from Fort Hays State. Comparatively, Trump still lags, but the margin over Clinton is more "normal". Other than the aforementioned outlier, the remainder of the polling in the state is point in the same direction: toward Trump.
Missouri:
The same thing could be said next door in the Show-Me state. The former bellwether with just one exception has been firmly within Lean Trump territory through the lens of the polls. That positioning was affirmed by the addition of the latest poll of Missouri from Survey USA. The Trump +10 margin is right in line with where the previous Public Policy Polling survey had the race. However, that poll was in the field before the Republican convention. The Survey USA poll, on the other hand, straddled the convention; overlapping with the final two days of the Cleveland confab.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
WA-12
(164)
|
NH-4
(253)
|
UT-6
(158)
|
LA-8
(55)
|
VT-3
(10)
|
NJ-14
(178)
|
PA-203
(273/285)
|
AK-3
(152)
|
SD-3
(47)
|
MD-10
(20)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
IA-6
(279/265) |
IN-11
(149)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
RI-4
(24)
|
OR-7
(195)
|
FL-29
(308/259) |
MO-10
(138)
|
ID-4
(41)
|
MA-11
(35)
|
NM-5
(200)
|
NC-15
(323/230)
|
TX-38
(128)
|
NE-5
(37)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
CT-7
(207)
|
OH-18
(341/215)
|
KS-6
(90)
|
AL-9
(32)
|
DE-3
(93)
|
ME-4
(211)
|
AZ-11
(197)
|
SC-9
(84)
|
KY-8
(23)
|
NY-29
(122)
|
CO-9
(220)
|
NV-6
(186)
|
TN-11
(75)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
IL-20
(142)
|
MI-16
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
AR-6
(64)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
MN-10
(152)
|
VA-13
(249)
|
MS-6
(164)
|
MT-3
(58)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Tennessee
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Utah
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
2016 Democratic National Convention Presidential Nomination Roll Call Tally
The Electoral College Map (7/26/16)
The Electoral College Map (7/25/16)
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