Friday, August 12, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/12/16)

Latest Update



New State Polls (8/12/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
8/4-8/10
+/- 3.0%
899 registered voters
41
29
8
+12
+7.21
Florida
8/4-8/10
+/- 3.1%
862 registered voters
41
36
9
+5
+2.35
North Carolina
8/4-8/10
+/- 3.1%
921 registered voters
45
36
7
+9
+2.53
Texas
8/8-8/9
+/- 3.1%
1018 likely voters
35
46
9
+11
+8.94
Virginia
8/4-8/10
+/- 3.1%
897 registered voters
43
31
9
+12
+5.25


Polling Quick Hits:
The end of the work week brought with it a handful of rosy battleground state polls for Hillary Clinton from NBC/Marist and an additional poll from deep in the heart of Texas.


Colorado:
The Centennial state is likely still underpolled, but on the strength of a double digit margin from the first post-convention survey in the state, Clinton's advantage has pushed well into the Lean category. Colorado does not budge from its position on the Electoral College Spectrum, but is, nonetheless, further insulated from Trump at this point in time. Apparently, Priorities USA -- the super PAC aligned with Clinton -- is getting the same signal.


Florida:
There have been a number of polls released from the Sunshine state since the conventions wrapped up two weeks ago. Two of them have indicated a nearly tied race while the remaining two have had Clinton up five points. The new Marist poll is among the latter group and is actually an exact replica of the Marist pre-convention poll for the two major party candidates. But that is the range in Florida: tied to Clinton +5. And it is right in line with the FHQ weighted average of all 2016 polls in the state. Florida is consistently tilted in Clinton's direction from this vantage point in mid-August.


North Carolina:
The Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio group of states on the Electoral College Spectrum below is tightly clustered. However, the Clinton +9 poll of the Tar Heel state from Marist was enough to bump North Carolina from a spot on the partisan line separating Clinton and Trump states to one on the other end of the quartet. Instead of being the closest of the four, North Carolina now features the widest margin of those states. But make no mistake: while it traded ends within that subgrouping of states, North Carolina is still very much a part of a cluster of states that is separated from the next tier.

It should also be noted that Marist has been on the upper end of the range of polling results in North Carolina. This latest poll continues in that trend. It increases the margin, but it remains in the toss up area.


Texas:
The new Dixie Strategies poll in Texas is about par for the course in 2016 Lone Star state polling. Trump is ahead, but lags behind Romney's performance there in 2012. Yes, Texas is a little closer than it otherwise would be in a different cycle, but does not appear likely to get caught up in any Clinton surge (or Trump decline). At this point Texas is to Trump as Wisconsin or Maine is to Clinton. The only difference is that in mid-August the trendline is moving toward Texas while Wisconsin and Maine turn a deeper shade of blue.


Virginia:
Changes (August 12)
StateBeforeAfter
VirginiaToss Up ClintonLean Clinton
Though it, too, is on the upper end of the polling range in Virginia, the new poll from Marist nudges the Old Dominion above the Toss Up/Lean line. Like the group of blue toss up states mentioned above, Virginia is part of another cluster -- a lean cluster -- with Pennsylvania and Colorado. Those are all states that Trump would like to have to ease if not find a path to 270. All seem out of reach at this time, however.

Note that Virginia is a deeper shade of blue than New Hampshire in the Electoral College Spectrum below. Both serve as the tipping point in any candidate clinching the White House. And though New Hampshire is on the Watch List -- on the cusp of switching into Lean Clinton territory -- it is now all alone on the upper edge of the category. The significance of Virginia moving into the lean area is that on just the Strong and Lean states, Clinton would have 269 electoral votes. She would need just one additional state to crest above 270. And New Hampshire is positioned to be that state.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
VA-133
(269 | 282)
MS-6
(155)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
MO-10
(149)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
NC-15
(288 | 265)
AK-3
(139)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
ME-4
(192)
FL-29
(317 | 250)
UT-6
(136)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
NM-5
(197)
IA-6
(323 | 221)
KS-6
(130)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
MI-16
(213)
OH-18
(341 | 215)
IN-11
(124)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
OR-7
(220)
NV-6
(197)
TX-38
(113)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
CT-7
(227)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
MN-10
(149)
CO-9
(236)
GA-16
(180)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
WA-12
(161)
PA-20
(256)
SC-9
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Virginia
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Wisconsin
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



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