New State Polls (8/15/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York
|
8/7-8/10
|
+/- 4.3%
|
717 registered voters
|
50
|
25
|
6
|
+25
|
+19.85
| |
Washington
|
8/9-8/13
|
+/- 4.5%
|
500 registered voters
|
43
|
24
|
16
|
+19
|
+16.04
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Monday brought a couple of polls from two reliably blue states and not too many surprises.
New York:
The latest Siena survey continues to show Clinton well ahead of Trump in the state each calls home. At this point -- through the lens of the Siena polling -- the home state advantages seem to be canceling each other out and the contest in the Empire state looks normal. Clinton is up by a similar margin to the one Obama led Romney in 2012. However, both Clinton and Trump are underperforming their 2012 predecessors in New York. That means a little less in a state in which Clinton doubles up Trump, cresting around 50%.
Washington:
In the Evergreen state, the picture is a bit fuller with the addition of the first Elway poll (of the presidential race) of the 2016 cycle. Clinton is ahead by a margin that could be considered typical in the Obama era, but again, like New York, both major party candidates are underperforming the 2012 nominees. One could attempt to attribute that to the early timeframe, but that is not really the case. At a similar time in 2012, Obama led Romney by similar mid-to-upper teens margins, and both enjoyed slightly higher shares of support in the Washington polls.
New York retains its position on the Electoral College Spectrum below while Washington ticks up a slot, switching places with Minnesota. Both remain comfortably within the Strong Clinton category. And it should be noted that though Clinton has expanded her lead nationally and in some of the battleground states, that sort of expansion of polling support has not necessarily extended to the bluest of states. Things appear normal in those states.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
VA-133
(269 | 282)
|
MS-6
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
MO-10
(149)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
NC-15
(288 | 265) |
AK-3
(139)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
ME-4
(192)
|
FL-29
(317 | 250) |
UT-6
(136)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
IA-6
(323 | 221)
|
KS-6
(130)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
MI-16
(213)
|
OH-18
(341 | 215)
|
IN-11
(124)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
OR-7
(220)
|
NV-6
(197)
|
TX-38
(113)
|
AL-9
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
PA-20
(256)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/14/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/12/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/11/16)
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The Electoral College Map (8/14/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/12/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/11/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
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