New State Polls (8/16/16)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
8/12-8/15
|
+/- 4.9%
|
402 likely voters
|
48
|
39
|
5
|
+9
|
+2.84
| |
Texas
|
8/12-8/14
|
+/- 3.2%
|
944 likely voters
|
38
|
44
|
10
|
+6
|
+8.07
| |
Virginia
|
8/11-8/14
|
+/- 4.0%
|
707 likely voters
|
46
|
39
|
2
|
+7
|
+5.44
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
The few polls that emerged on Tuesday offered a reinforcement of the prevailing averages in a couple of states and a departure of sorts in another.
Florida:
The departure comes out of the Sunshine state. Monmouth's first survey of Florida breaks from the post-convention pattern/range that has been established. As mentioned recently, the clear picture in Florida following Philly has been that the race there is anywhere from tied to about Clinton +5. Monmouth, however, finds the former secretary of state up nine. And since nomination season concluded in early June, only Democratic-leaning GQR had Clinton ahead by any comparable margin. In the context of the other summer polling, that one was an outlier, and so might this one from Monmouth be. By the same token, this could be evidence that Florida is breaking toward Clinton. Could be. Time will tell.
The candidates' support in that poll was enough to bump the average up in Florida, pushing it past North Carolina on the Electoral College Spectrum. Still, Florida continues to be a toss up state in FHQ's categorization.
Texas:
In the Lone Star state, the picture is of a race that tilts toward Trump as one might expect, but again, not to the degree that one would imagine Texas leaning at the presidential level. Though the polling is still relatively scant, Texas occupies a space just under the Strong/Lean line on the Republican side of the Electoral College Spectrum below. While Clinton continues to be in range (in the polls) of the vote share President Obama got in Texas in 2012, Trump also lags well behind the where Romney was in the state just four short years ago. In this poll alone, Trump is below 50 percent and about 13 points behind the pace Romney set in 2012. This is consistent with the drift toward Clinton in the electoral college in the wake of convention season. If Georgia is around tied and South Carolina is a few points toward Trump behind that, then Texas is another few points behind South Carolina in the order of states.
Virginia:
Another day and another poll showing Virginia comfortably within the lean area on the Democratic end of the Spectrum. The latest from the Washington Post has Clinton up seven points in the multi-candidate race. That is on the lower side of the range of post-convention polling in the Old Dominion, but pushes the FHQ graduated weighted average there up another notch. If Virginia continues on this trajectory, it will join Pennsylvania off the Watch List as a state well within the Lean category here at FHQ. But that will require more data.
Both the map and Watch List remain unchanged today. Only Florida shifts on the Spectrum.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
VA-133
(269 | 282)
|
MS-6
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
MO-10
(149)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
AK-3
(139)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
ME-4
(192)
|
NC-15
(317 | 236) |
UT-6
(136)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
IA-6
(323 | 221)
|
KS-6
(130)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
MI-16
(213)
|
OH-18
(341 | 215)
|
IN-11
(124)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
OR-7
(220)
|
NV-6
(197)
|
TX-38
(113)
|
AL-9
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
PA-20
(256)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/15/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/14/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/12/16)
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The Electoral College Map (8/15/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/14/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/12/16)
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