New State Polls (8/18/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
8/17
|
+/- 3.6%
|
730 registered voters
|
42.8
|
43.0
|
3.4
|
+0.2
|
+0.87
| |
Nevada
|
8/15-8/17
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
43.8
|
41.6
|
7.8
|
+2.2
|
+0.33
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
The one thing about the presidential race in the post-convention environment is that the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum below has been stuck somewhere in the midst of the Arizona, Georgia and Nevada grouping. For the last week and a half all three have been on the Trump side, but only by the smallest of margins. However, the point in raising this is not those margins. Rather, it is to suggest that if the most competitive states are states that ended up Lean Romney states in November 2012, then the battleground has shifted against Republicans in the intervening four years.
Sure, Nevada is more competitive than is was in 2012, but most of the rest of the states have remained proximate to the positions each was in order (given the polling data available thus far in 2016). In light of that fact, even picking up Nevada would be small consolation if most of the rest of the order remains intact. As of now -- in mid-August 2016 -- cycle-over-cycle stability is the take-home. The above is the Obama map plus North Carolina (or that minus Nevada).
In any event, two of those most competitive states cited above saw new poll releases today.
Georgia:
The post-convention story in Georgia remains the same: There is a range of results from tied to about Trump +5. And the latest from the Peach state from Opinion Savvy does nothing to change that. It fits right in on the lower end of that range. It should be noted also that the firm had Trump ahead only three points in its last survey of Georgia in May. Consistent with the movement in this race in the time since, then, things have moved in Clinton's direction.
Georgia holds its position on the Spectrum and remains on the Watch List, though the average margin is pushing one point.
Nevada:
| Changes (August 18) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Toss Up Trump | Toss Up Clinton | |
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
VA-133
(269 | 282)
|
MO-10
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
UT-6
(142)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
ME-4
(192)
|
NC-15
(317 | 236) |
KS-6
(136)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
OH-18
(335 | 221)
|
TX-38
(130)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
MI-16
(213)
|
IA-6
(341 | 203)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
OR-7
(220)
|
NV-6
(347 | 197)
|
MS-6
(81)
|
AL-9
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
PA-20
(256)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/17/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/16/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/15/16)
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The Electoral College Map (8/17/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/16/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/15/16)
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