New State Polls (8/21/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iowa
|
8/17-8/19
|
+/- 4.0%
|
987 likely voters
|
40
|
40
|
7
|
+0
|
+1.82
| |
Ohio
|
8/17-8/19
|
+/- 3.9%
|
997 likely voters
|
46
|
40
|
4
|
+6
|
+2.30
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
For the third Sunday running YouGov has another series of battleground state polls. This time the stops are in the midwest in Iowa and Ohio. Both states have been proximate to each other on the Electoral College Spectrum, but have moved in opposite directions during August. While the margin in Ohio has ticked upward (and toward Clinton), Iowa has gotten closer and closer.
Iowa:
FHQ has gotten some flak over the last week or so about Iowa. More explicitly, there has been some pushback on the idea of Iowa being to the Clinton side of Nevada on the Electoral College Spectrum. This was more noteworthy, perhaps, when Nevada was barely on the Trump side of the partisan line before a recent polling update in the Silver state. Compared to other sites tracking the state of the race to 270 -- particularly those accounting for demography/demographic changes on the state level -- FHQ has consistently had Nevada in redder territory. That is mainly a function of the fact that FHQ only utilizes polling data, and the polls in Nevada have shown a much tighter race.
However, as I argued early last week, the question may be less about the order of Iowa and Nevada and more about how proximate one is to the other on the Spectrum. Yes, during the Obama era, Nevada has been to the Democratic side of Iowa. But in each case, the two states ended up pretty close to each other. And though Iowa was on one side of the partisan line and Nevada the other until very recently, the two have been converging on one another in the post-convention period. That is true on the Spectrum, but is increasingly true in terms of the average margins as well. Nevada is virtually tied and Iowa is also inching closer to that distinction. Having tied polls and nothing more than a two point advantage for either candidate since the conventions will do that. And this new poll from YouGov fits right in.
Ohio:
Meanwhile in the Buckeye state, it is hard to fathom that this poll from YouGov is just the third overall there since the convention. That obviously is not a lot of data on which to go, but all are pointing in the same direction: toward Clinton. The lingering question, then, concerns by just how much is Clinton ahead. A six point lead is not only the largest of the post-convention period for Clinton in Ohio but the largest since a couple of primary season surveys there. There is probably enough recent data to suggest Clinton is ahead in Ohio, but probably not by six points. That is, at least until there is more similar data released.
Neither Iowa nor Ohio budge from their positions (next to each other) on the Spectrum below. Both remain firmly within the Toss Up Clinton category with neither on the Watch List.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
VA-133
(269 | 282)
|
MO-10
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
UT-6
(142)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
ME-4
(192)
|
NC-15
(317 | 236) |
KS-6
(136)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
OH-18
(335 | 221)
|
TX-38
(130)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
MI-16
(213)
|
IA-6
(341 | 203)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
OR-7
(220)
|
NV-6
(347 | 197)
|
MS-6
(81)
|
AL-9
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
PA-20
(256)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/18/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/17/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/16/16)
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The Electoral College Map (8/18/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/17/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/16/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
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