New State Polls (8/2/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
7/31
|
+/- 4.0%
|
787 likely voters
|
45.7
|
45.9
|
3.0
|
+0.2
|
+1.88
| |
Georgia
|
7/29-7/31
|
+/- 4.0%
|
628 likely voters
|
42
|
46
|
5
|
+4
|
--
| |
Oklahoma
|
7/20-7/25
|
+/- 4.91%
|
398 likely voters
|
29
|
53
|
11
|
+24
|
+24
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Georgia:
Most will zero in on the tied Landmark poll of the Peach state, but when considered alongside the latest Survey USA poll in Georgia, one gets a picture that on par with the state of affairs in the state at the moment. In other words, split the difference between these two polls and one gets the same Trump +2 picture that was already where the FHQ average was. The addition of these polls shaves a few one-hundredths off the average, but Georgia remains a close state. However, it is one that is still less a need than a want for Clinton. Arizona and Nevada are clearer targets (see Spectrum below). All three are needs for Trump in any legitimate path to 270.
Oklahoma:
Out in the Sooner state, well, the one thing that can be taken from this is that there is now some data in from an unpolled, typically ruby red state. That has been lacking when compared to the other five categories FHQ uses. Not surprisingly, the Sooner Poll shows Trump well ahead of Clinton in Oklahoma. Yet, Oklahoma was a state where Romney won in November by 2:1. Trump is off that pace in the heart of summer, but is in a comparable position to where Romney was at a similar time (in the same poll) in 2012. Sure, Trump is lagging, but not by much. Needless to say, Oklahoma is not showing signs of being dramatically closer (as neighboring Kansas has).
--
Georgia keeps its position on the Spectrum below while Oklahoma and West Virginia flip flop spots on the bottom right at the far Republican end of the figure. Neither is on the Watch List. The decay function, if one wants to call it that in this instance, has the average margin in Arizona slightly growing -- in favor of Trump -- over time. It has nudged past Nevada leaving the Silver state as the closest Trump-leaning toss up state. Both Arizona and Nevada remain on the Watch List within a fraction of a point of shifting into Toss Up Clinton territory. Unlike all of the Clinton toss ups, Arizona and Nevada -- on the Trump side of the victory line -- are the only toss ups on the Watch List. In other words, they are the closest to switching sides and altering the current electoral vote tallies.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
VA-133
(269 | 282)
|
UT-6
(158)
|
LA-8
(55)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
IA-63
(275 | 269)
|
AK-3
(152)
|
SD-3
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
NH-4
(279 | 263) |
MO-10
(149)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
NM-5
(193)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259) |
IN-11
(139)
|
ID-4
(41)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
OR-7
(200)
|
NC-15
(323 | 230)
|
TX-38
(128)
|
NE-5
(37)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
CT-7
(207)
|
OH-18
(341 | 215)
|
KS-6
(90)
|
AL-9
(32)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
ME-4
(211)
|
NV-6
(197)
|
TN-11
(84)
|
KY-8
(23)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CO-9
(220)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
SC-9
(73)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
MN-10
(149)
|
MI-16
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
AR-6
(64)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
WA-12
(161)
|
PA-20
(256)
|
MS-6
(164)
|
MT-3
(58)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Iowa and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, Iowa, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
South Carolina
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Tennessee
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Utah
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/1/16)
The Electoral College Map (7/29/16)
The Electoral College Map (7/28/16)
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