New State Polls (8/22/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina
|
8/15-8/17
|
+/- 3.6%
|
723 registered voters
|
38
|
39
|
10
|
+1
|
+2.22
| |
Ohio
|
8/18-8/21
|
+/- 4.9%
|
402 likely voters
|
43
|
39
|
8
|
+4
|
+2.40
| |
South Carolina
|
8/15-8/17
|
+/- 3.5%
|
768 registered voters
|
37
|
41
|
11
|
+4
|
+3.03
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
With just more than 11 weeks until Election Day, the beginning of the work week offered one new poll each from the Carolinas and another Ohio survey.
North Carolina:
In the Tar Heel state, the latest Gravis survey found a closer race than had the other polling firms in the post-convention period. While Clinton led by one in the head-to-head with Trump, in the multi-candidate race, Trump was ahead. This one is closer to the PPP survey (Clinton +2) than it was to the Marist poll that had the former secretary of state up nine points. This nudged the FHQ average in North Carolina down slightly, but kept it the cluster of Clinton-leaning toss up states (with Florida, Iowa and Ohio).
Ohio:
For the second consecutive day there was a new poll out of the Buckeye state. The range established in the few polls to have been released since the conventions has had Clinton ahead anywhere from two to six points ahead. And the first Monmouth poll of Ohio of this cycle falls into that gap. Clinton +4 is not only the average Ohio poll lead since the conventions but modal poll margin as well. In any event, the polling out of Ohio continues to push the FHQ weighted average (margin) higher and higher and away from Trump. This poll and the latest North Carolina poll above kept both states in the cluster of toss ups mentioned above but causes the two to trade places in the Electoral College Spectrum.
South Carolina:
One could argue that the Gravis survey of North Carolina discussed above is off by showing Trump ahead. Perhaps, but is it within range of the post-convention PPP poll there. What is more difficult to square is the idea that only three points separate the margins North and South Carolina. Trump's lead in the four-way race in South Carolina is just four points. That, too, is proximate to a recent PPP survey of the Palmetto state. However, North and South Carolina have been separated by a bit more than eight points in the final results over the last two cycles. Something could be wrong with one of these two Carolinas polls, but it could also be that the two states are reverting to a pre-Obama era proximity to each other in the order states (albeit one that has the pair in a more competitive space on the Spectrum than was the case when both were Strong Bush states in 2000 and 2004).
Though this Gravis survey does not move South Carolina on the Spectrum, it does provide a little more evidence that South Carolina is more competitive than it has been while still being consistently tilted in Trump's direction.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
VA-133
(269 | 282)
|
MO-10
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
UT-6
(142)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
ME-4
(192)
|
OH-18
(320 | 236) |
KS-6
(136)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
NC-15
(335 | 218)
|
TX-38
(130)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
MI-16
(213)
|
IA-6
(341 | 203)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
OR-7
(220)
|
NV-6
(347 | 197)
|
MS-6
(81)
|
AL-9
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
PA-20
(256)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/21/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/18/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/17/16)
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The Electoral College Map (8/21/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/18/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/17/16)
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