New State Polls (8/23/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
8/14-8/18
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1380 likely voters
|
51.7
|
37.7
|
--
|
+14
|
+3.42
| |
Missouri
|
8/19-8/22
|
+/- 4.9%
|
401 likely voters
|
43
|
44
|
5
|
+1
|
+3.70
| |
Utah
|
8/19-8/21
|
+/- 3.1%
|
1018 likely voters
|
24
|
39
|
14
|
+15
|
+7.82
| |
Virginia
|
8/7-8/17
|
+/- 3.5%
|
803 likely voters
|
48
|
32
|
9
|
+16
|
+6.95
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Tuesday marks the 11 week mark until Election Day and brought with a handful of polls. Two are what FHQ would call confirming polls and two others are either outright outliers or pushing the boundaries of such a distinction.
Florida:
The clearest of the two outliers comes from the Sunshine state. Hardly underpolled, Florida has seen its fair share of polling-based evidence as to the state of the race there. The upper end of the range in Florida surveys has had Clinton's advantage approaching double digits, but more often than not, the margin has fallen somewhere in the tied to Clinton +5 range. This internet-based survey from Saint Leo does not jibe well with that. Clinton may very well be up by 14 points, but this would be the first hint of that. While that bumps the average margin in Florida up some, Florida maintains its position on the Spectrum and as the least competitive of the toss up states.
...which is to say that Florida is still competitive.
Missouri:
Missouri has been hovering around the Toss Up/Lean line for a while now. However, the latest survey from Monmouth, like a number of post-convention polls, has the Show-Me state close. All three post-convention surveys (and even one between the two conventions) there have found the race in Missouri favoring Trump, but by three or fewer points. This survey buttresses that and draws the FHQ margin in Missouri even closer, pulling the state off the Watch List (off the lean line).
Utah:
A few early surveys in Utah found Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton knotted somewhere in the 30s. But those polls are now distant memories, but indicative of a broader trend there. As FHQ has pointed out when new polls have emerged in the Beehive state, the issue is less that it is close. The more important point in Utah is that while Clinton is around where Obama was in 2012 there, Trump is running over 30 points behind Mitt Romney's mark. If Clinton can over perform Obama -- as she was in earlier polls -- then this one could be close. At this point, Utah seems like a race to 40 percent and Trump is best positioned to get there.
Utah remains in the Lean Trump category even after adding in the new survey from PPP.
Virginia:
It is harder to call the newly released Roanoke poll an outlier because there have been a number of polls that pegged Clinton's advantage in the Old Dominion in the double digits. Yet, a Clinton +16 is stretching out from what had been a few polls in the lower double digits; not pushing +20. As FHQ mentioned, Roanoke has had a noisy series of polls in the past. Even this year, January's 17 point Clinton lead melted away to literally nothing by the time Roanoke conducted another poll in May. Now that lead is back up to 16 points. That is two pretty large swings.
Adding this one increases Clinton's lead in Virginia via the FHQ averages, but Virginia is still very much rooted in the Lean Clinton area. Notably, on the weight of this survey, Virginia and Pennsylvania swap positions on the Electoral College Spectrum. That has the effect of making Pennsylvania one of the tipping point states huddled around the victory line bisecting Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in the order. If those two are split between the candidates and the order behind them holds, then there would be a tie in the electoral college. Right now, though, those two states are well within the blue side of the partisan line.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
PA-203
(269 | 289)
|
MO-10
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
KS-6
(142)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
ME-4
(192)
|
OH-18
(320 | 236) |
UT-6
(136)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
NC-15
(335 | 218)
|
TX-38
(130)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
MI-16
(213)
|
IA-6
(341 | 203)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
OR-7
(220)
|
NV-6
(347 | 197)
|
MS-6
(81)
|
AL-9
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
VA-13
(249)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/22/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/21/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/18/16)
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The Electoral College Map (8/22/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/21/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/18/16)
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