New State Polls (8/25/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
8/18-8/23
|
+/- 3.5%
|
809 likely voters
|
38
|
45
|
0
|
+7
|
+1.26
| |
Michigan
|
8/22-8/24
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
43.6
|
37.2
|
10.8
|
+6.4
|
+7.75
| |
North Carolina
|
8/18-8/23
|
+/- 3.5%
|
803 likely voters
|
45
|
45
|
0
|
+/-0
|
+2.04
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Calm before the storm? Thursday was light in the survey release department. Not counting the late, previous day polls out of Arizona and North Carolina from CNN, the only poll added to the mix was the Suffolk release from Michigan.
Arizona:
There are two truths to the polling of Arizona in 2016. First, there has not been nearly enough it. And second, with only three exceptions -- two from one firm (OH Predictive Insights) and another from a Democratic-leaning outlet (GQR) -- Trump has narrowly led in nearly all of them. The CNN poll of the Grand Canyon state incrementally addresses the first point and is in the direction of the second point. It only breaks with the established margin. But focusing less on that Trump +7 -- +5 in the head-to-head -- the key may be that this poll has Trump on the upper end of the 42-45 percent range he has been in in Arizona all year. And Clinton is on the lower end of her 38-42 percent range. In other words, this is well within the range of results one would expect. But given that the polling has been trending against Trump of late, that +7 will tend to catch the eye.
Arizona remains a Trump toss up, but comes off the Watch List below and trades spots with Georgia on the Electoral College Spectrum.
Michigan:
If there is one thing that can be gleaned from the post convention polling in Michigan it is that Hillary Clinton has something very close -- tightly clustered -- around 43 percent support. One can even take it out one decimal point to highlight the point. Both the new Suffolk survey and the one from Mitchell Research last week had Clinton at 43.6 percent. Now, that synchronicity is just coincidence, but the bigger point should not be lost: any variation in the margin is about Trump fluctuations in support rather than Clinton. And on that front, Trump can be seen rebounding somewhat from his dip into the low 30s in the Great Lakes state following the conventions. But that rebound, if one wants to call the changes across just four post-convention polls a rebound, brings the race in Michigan right back in line with where FHQ has it: somewhere between seven and eight points.
North Carolina:
North Carolina has had a few recent polls, so there really is not much to add. The key question in the Tar Heel state at the moment is whether we will see a break from the established pattern: a small but persistent lead for Clinton. In some respects, that facet is reminiscent of North Carolina from four years ago, but just on the other side of the partisan line. However, the margin from Romney was always a little greater. The better comparison -- a persistent by but narrow lead that never seemed to go away -- might be Florida in 2012. At least through the lens of FHQ's methodology, Florida never jumped the partisan line and turned pink. But that margin did dip very close to zero in the waning days of the campaign. Still, that comparison remains how FHQ sees North Carolina until the data breaks from the Clinton by a narrow margin pattern.
--
There were no changes to the map as compared to the last update. Only the Arizona moves -- coming off the Watch List and switch with Georgia on the Spectrum -- were different.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
PA-203
(269 | 289)
|
MO-10
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
KS-6
(142)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
ME-4
(192)
|
OH-18
(320 | 236) |
UT-6
(136)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
NC-15
(335 | 218)
|
TX-38
(130)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
MI-16
(213)
|
IA-6
(341 | 203)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
OR-7
(220)
|
NV-6
(347 | 197)
|
MS-6
(81)
|
AL-9
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
GA-16
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
AZ-11
(175)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
VA-13
(249)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/24/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/23/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/22/16)
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The Electoral College Map (8/24/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/23/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/22/16)
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