New State Polls (8/26/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
8/18-8/24
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 registered voters
|
42
|
37
|
8
|
+5
|
--
| |
Florida
|
8/22-8/24
|
+/- 4.0%
|
625 likely voters
|
44
|
42
|
6
|
+2
|
+3.18
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
There were just a couple of polls that trickled in from Florida to end the work week.
Florida:
Like North Carolina a day ago, the story of the presidential race in Florida amounts to this with respect to the polling of the state: Show me a survey that finds anything other than a Clinton lead in the one to five point range and FHQ will call it an outlier. But give us more than one poll pointing in the same direction -- consistently more or less competitive than the above range -- and the race may be headed in another direction. Right now it is not. Florida operated in the tied to one point advantage range in the FHQ averages throughout the 2012 general election campaign. The 2016 polling in the Sunshine state is perhaps a bit more volatile, but the data are mostly clustered in the above range.
--
There were no changes to the map, Spectrum or List as compared to the last update.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
PA-203
(269 | 289)
|
MO-10
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
KS-6
(142)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
ME-4
(192)
|
OH-18
(320 | 236) |
UT-6
(136)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
NC-15
(335 | 218)
|
TX-38
(130)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
MI-16
(213)
|
IA-6
(341 | 203)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
OR-7
(220)
|
NV-6
(347 | 197)
|
MS-6
(81)
|
AL-9
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
GA-16
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
AZ-11
(175)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
VA-13
(249)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/25/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/24/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/23/16)
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The Electoral College Map (8/25/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/24/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/23/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
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