New State Polls (8/30/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pennsylvania
|
8/26-8/29
|
+/- 4.9%
|
402 likely voters
|
48
|
40
|
4
|
+8
|
+6.08
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
The national polls have begun to show a slight redirection over the course of the last week or so; an end to the Clinton bounce/Trump decline that defined the immediate aftermath of the convention period. That could be the start of a settling into the narrowing that Jim Campbell found marked the general election campaign.
But that same sort of trend has not as clearly extended to the state level. It should be noted that that is not necessarily a function of a systematic difference across national and state-level polls. Instead, it is more attributable to the lack of a steady stream of state survey releases. With 70 days until election day, things have slowed to a trickle. Granted, things looked similar four years ago (one poll), but that was during convention season. And the flood of polling followed in September.
A similar pattern of releases did not follow convention season in 2016. The pattern to look for -- or the marker perhaps -- is the calendar flipping to September.
In any event, it is more difficult to detect whether the trend line in the national polls carries over to the state level. There just is not enough data on that yet.
Pennsylvania:
The evidence in yesterday's Emerson poll made it look as if Clinton was holding steady in her post-convention range and Trump was rebounding somewhat. That type of closing of the gap is not evident in Monmouth's first survey of the Keystone state. The eight point margin and the candidates' shares of support are consistent with the bulk of post-convention survey work there. This poll represents more of the same in Pennsylvania rather than a Trump resurgence/Clinton decline (or both).
--
Compared to the last update there were no changes to the map or Spectrum. Only one poll being added will tend to have that effect. However, on yesterday, off today: on the weight of this poll Pennsylvania eases off the Watch List. Now, it is just outside of a point away from the Lean/Toss up line on the Clinton side of the partisan line.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
PA-203
(269 | 289)
|
MO-10
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
KS-6
(142)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
ME-4
(192)
|
OH-18
(320 | 236) |
UT-6
(136)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
NC-15
(335 | 218)
|
TX-38
(130)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
OR-7
(204)
|
IA-6
(341 | 203)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
MI-16
(220)
|
NV-6
(347 | 197)
|
MS-6
(81)
|
AL-9
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
GA-16
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
AZ-11
(175)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
VA-13
(249)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/29/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/26/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/25/16)
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The Electoral College Map (8/29/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/26/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/25/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
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