The Electoral College Map (8/3/16)

Latest Update

New State Polls (8/3/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	OH Predictive Insights	8/1	+/- 3.1%	996 likely voters	45	42	8	+3	+0.21
North Carolina	Survey USA/Civitas	7/31-8/2	+/- 5.0%	400 likely voters	42	46	7	+4	+1.87
Tennessee	icitizen	7/25-7/27	+/- -.-%	531 registered voters	29	46	16	+17	+13.97

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:

Changes (August 3)
State	Before	After
Arizona	Toss Up Trump	Toss Up Clinton
Tennessee	Lean Trump	Strong Trump

The Grand Canyon state's position along the partisan line has been a constant throughout much of the summer. That is no different after the addition of yet another survey from OH Predictive Insights. The firm has favored Clinton in its polling of Arizona during 2016 and another slight edge for Clinton in the latest survey is enough push the state over the line into Clinton territory. That alters the electoral count overall, but does not change the fact that Arizona is still on the Watch List, right on the partisan line.

North Carolina:

In the Tar Heel state, the latest from Civitas continues to favor Trump as the last pre-convention poll did. The change this month is that both candidates added to their support in the intervening month. Still, the bulk of polling in the state slightly favors Clinton, though this survey cuts some into what had been a more than two point edge for the former secretary of state in North Carolina. At this point, however, North Carolina remains on the Clinton side of both Ohio and now Arizona on the Electoral College Spectrum below. As a result, it is more likely that Trump finds some inroads in those states before North Carolina. 

Tennessee:

There has been one lonely poll out the Volunteer state in 2016, and it pointed toward a Trump advantage, though one not as strong as past Republican nominees. Of course, that was way back in May during primary season. The internet poll from citizen shows a wider Trump margin in Tennessee, but one still running slightly behind where Romney was in 2012. It helps that Clinton is -- in this poll at least -- underperforming Obama 2012 there. Tennessee shifts into the Strong Trump category and slides off the Watch List below.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	VA-133 (269 | 282)	UT-6 (158)	LA-8 (55)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	IA-63 (275 | 269)	AK-3 (152)	SD-3 (47)
RI-4 (21)	WI-10 (188)	NH-4 (279 | 263)	MO-10 (149)	ND-3 (44)
MA-11 (32)	NM-5 (193)	FL-29 (308 | 259)	IN-11 (139)	ID-4 (41)
VT-3 (35)	OR-7 (200)	NC-15 (323 | 230)	TX-38 (128)	NE-5 (37)
CA-55 (90)	CT-7 (207)	OH-18 (341 | 215)	KS-6 (90)	AL-9 (32)
NY-29 (119)	ME-4 (211)	AZ-11 (352 | 197)	SC-9 (84)	KY-8 (23)
IL-20 (139)	CO-9 (220)	NV-6 (186)	AR-6 (75)	OK-7 (15)
MN-10 (149)	MI-16 (236)	GA-16 (180)	MT-3 (69)	WV-5 (8)
WA-12 (161)	PA-20 (256)	MS-6 (164)	TN-11 (66)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Iowa and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, Iowa, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Arizona	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Arkansas	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Missouri	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
South Carolina	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Utah	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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