New State Polls (8/3/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
8/1
|
+/- 3.1%
|
996 likely voters
|
45
|
42
|
8
|
+3
|
+0.21
| |
North Carolina
|
7/31-8/2
|
+/- 5.0%
|
400 likely voters
|
42
|
46
|
7
|
+4
|
+1.87
| |
Tennessee
|
7/25-7/27
|
+/- -.-%
|
531 registered voters
|
29
|
46
|
16
|
+17
|
+13.97
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
| Changes (August 3) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Toss Up Trump | Toss Up Clinton | |
| Tennessee | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
North Carolina:
In the Tar Heel state, the latest from Civitas continues to favor Trump as the last pre-convention poll did. The change this month is that both candidates added to their support in the intervening month. Still, the bulk of polling in the state slightly favors Clinton, though this survey cuts some into what had been a more than two point edge for the former secretary of state in North Carolina. At this point, however, North Carolina remains on the Clinton side of both Ohio and now Arizona on the Electoral College Spectrum below. As a result, it is more likely that Trump finds some inroads in those states before North Carolina.
Tennessee:
There has been one lonely poll out the Volunteer state in 2016, and it pointed toward a Trump advantage, though one not as strong as past Republican nominees. Of course, that was way back in May during primary season. The internet poll from citizen shows a wider Trump margin in Tennessee, but one still running slightly behind where Romney was in 2012. It helps that Clinton is -- in this poll at least -- underperforming Obama 2012 there. Tennessee shifts into the Strong Trump category and slides off the Watch List below.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
VA-133
(269 | 282)
|
UT-6
(158)
|
LA-8
(55)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
IA-63
(275 | 269)
|
AK-3
(152)
|
SD-3
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
NH-4
(279 | 263) |
MO-10
(149)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
NM-5
(193)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259) |
IN-11
(139)
|
ID-4
(41)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
OR-7
(200)
|
NC-15
(323 | 230)
|
TX-38
(128)
|
NE-5
(37)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
CT-7
(207)
|
OH-18
(341 | 215)
|
KS-6
(90)
|
AL-9
(32)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
ME-4
(211)
|
AZ-11
(352 | 197)
|
SC-9
(84)
|
KY-8
(23)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CO-9
(220)
|
NV-6
(186)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
MN-10
(149)
|
MI-16
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
WA-12
(161)
|
PA-20
(256)
|
MS-6
(164)
|
TN-11
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Iowa and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, Iowa, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
South Carolina
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Utah
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
Filling Nomination Vacancies That Don't Exist
The Electoral College Map (8/2/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/1/16)
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