New State Polls (8/4/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
8/1-8/3
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
43.2
|
38.8
|
11.6
|
+4.4
|
+2.43
| |
Michigan
|
7/30-8/1
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
41.0
|
31.6
|
15.5
|
+9.4
|
+7.22
| |
New Hampshire
|
7/29-8/1
|
+/- 4.0%
|
609 likely voters
|
45
|
31
|
13
|
+14
|
+3.94
| |
Pennsylvania
|
7/29-8/1
|
+/- 4.8%
|
661 registered voters
|
47
|
34
|
10
|
+13
|
+5.42
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
A week after the close of the Democratic National Convention, a handful of polls from blue -- toss up to lean -- states show Clinton in good position to hold on to the bulk of 2012 states President Obama won. There are, however, still three months until the November election.
Florida:
| Changes (August 4) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | Toss Up Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
And hey it is good to have Suffolk back in Florida after they stopped polling there after conceding that Obama had no shot.
Michigan:
Glengariff's first poll of Michigan since May shows Clinton at the upper end of the range of polling results in the Great Lakes state. But the survey also solidifies the position Michigan has occupied in the Lean Clinton category. It has knocked around within that area within the FHQ Electoral College Spectrum without leaving it all summer. That has been typical of Michigan in recent cycle (since at least part way through the 2008 cycle). In other words, this poll has Michigan being Michigan: attractive enough to enter into the swing state conversation, but far enough out into the Democratic slate of states to be very difficult indeed for a Republican nominee to pick off.
New Hampshire:
Perhaps this MassINC survey of New Hampshire is reminiscent of the 15 point lead UNH/WMUR showed Obama up in late September 2012. It could also be that it is the sign of a widening margin between Clinton and Trump. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle since there are not a lot of double digit Clinton advantages in the 2016 surveys of the Granite state. That is to say that this poll may be a sign of a lead -- a range even -- that is solidifying for Clinton in the state. Time and additional polling will tell.
Pennsylvania:
Another surprisingly wide margin can be found in the mid-Atlantic in Pennsylvania where Franklin and Marshall find a 13 point Clinton lead. The Keystone state has spent much of the summer months hovering around the line between the Toss Up and Lean Clinton categories. Recently, Pennsylvania has been just below that line in the Electoral College Spectrum below, but with this poll has pushed into Lean Clinton territory. Still, Pennsylvania remains on the Watch List. Only, now it is on the cusp of being a Toss Up rather than shifting into the Lean category.
Pennsylvania operates like a cross between Florida and Michigan in most recent cycles. It is valuable to some if not most scenarios in which a Republican candidate gets to 270, warrants attention, but ends up out of reach on the Democratic side of the partisan line (though often not as deep into the blue as Michigan).
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
NH-4
(260)
|
UT-6
(158)
|
LA-8
(55)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
VA-133
(273 | 278)
|
AK-3
(152)
|
SD-3
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
IA-6
(279 | 265) |
MO-10
(149)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
NM-5
(193)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259) |
IN-11
(139)
|
ID-4
(41)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
OR-7
(200)
|
NC-15
(323 | 230)
|
TX-38
(128)
|
NE-5
(37)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
CT-7
(207)
|
OH-18
(341 | 215)
|
KS-6
(90)
|
AL-9
(32)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
MI-16
(223)
|
AZ-11
(352 | 197)
|
SC-9
(84)
|
KY-8
(23)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
ME-4
(227)
|
NV-6
(186)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
MN-10
(149)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
WA-12
(161)
|
PA-20
(256)
|
MS-6
(164)
|
TN-11
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 278 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Virginia is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
South Carolina
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Utah
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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The Potential Impact of Divisiveness in the 2016 Presidential Campaign
The Electoral College Map (8/3/16)
Filling Nomination Vacancies That Don't Exist
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
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