Friday, August 5, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/5/16)

Latest Update



New State Polls (8/5/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Georgia
8/1-8/4
+/- 4.0%
847 registered voters
41
38
7
+3
+1.19
Michigan
7/30-8/4
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
43
32
14
+11
+7.67


Polling Quick Hits:
Georgia:
A bad (work) week of polling comes to a close with more suboptimal polling for Donald Trump. Most of the week has featured polls from blue states with seemingly widening gaps favoring the former secretary of state (and a few deep red state surveys indicating strong but lagging Trump leads). But in the latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey of the Peach state, there is at least some evidence that Clinton blue is creeping into red but competitive states.

Make no mistake, Georgia has been competitive in the polls all along. Of the ten polls conducted in Georgia in 2016, 70 percent of them have shown a race tipped toward Trump, but by margins of less than five points. That is a toss up by FHQ standards. This latest poll, however, has Clinton out in front and erodes the Trump advantage in the Peach state even further. Still, Georgia maintains its position behind Nevada as the tightest Toss Up Trump state, but one that is not quite within range -- a fraction of a point -- of jumping over the partisan line just yet. As FHQ has noted, Georgia and states like Arizona and/or Nevada are not needs for Clinton at this point given the order of states that has been established. On the path the 270, those states would prove superfluous to her, but very nearly necessary for Trump.


Michigan:
Another day, another poll out of Michigan. And in this case, the second story is the same as the first: Clinton is ahead by a margin hovering around the Strong and Lean categories. On the weight of this poll and yesterday's Glengariff survey, Clinton's average lead at FHQ has grown to nearly 8 points. Sure, the polling overall is moving in Clinton's direction this week following the Democratic convention last week and steady stream of unforced errors by Trump, but Michigan is one of those industrial midwest states that is a cornerstone of the Trump strategy to shake up the electoral map. If Michigan is moving deeper into Clinton territory, then several paths to 270 come off the table with it. Then again, if Georgia is moving toward Clinton, Michigan is going to be a next to impossible task for Trump.

The poll and resulting change to the FHQ weighted average for Michigan pushes the Great Lakes state deeper into the heart of the Lean Clinton category, but still well away from jumping into the Strong area.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
NH-4
(260)
UT-6
(158)
LA-8
(55)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
VA-133
(273 | 278)
AK-3
(152)
SD-3
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
IA-6
(279 | 265)
MO-10
(149)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(32)
NM-5
(193)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
IN-11
(139)
ID-4
(41)
VT-3
(35)
MI-16
(209)
NC-15
(323 | 230)
TX-38
(128)
NE-5
(37)
CA-55
(90)
OR-7
(216)
OH-18
(341 | 215)
KS-6
(90)
AL-9
(32)
NY-29
(119)
CT-7
(223)
AZ-11
(352 | 197)
SC-9
(84)
KY-8
(23)
IL-20
(139)
ME-4
(227)
NV-6
(186)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
MN-10
(149)
CO-9
(236)
GA-16
(180)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
WA-12
(161)
PA-20
(256)
MS-6
(164)
TN-11
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 278 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Virginia is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.



The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Missouri
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Utah
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.





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