New State Polls (8/7/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
8/2-8/5
|
+/- 4.8%
|
1095 likely voters
|
42
|
44
|
5
|
+2
|
+0.18
| |
Nevada
|
8/2-8/5
|
+/- 4.6%
|
993 likely voters
|
43
|
41
|
6
|
+2
|
+0.04
| |
Virginia
|
8/2-8/5
|
+/- 3.7%
|
1181 likely voters
|
49
|
37
|
5
|
+12
|
+4.30
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
There were a trio of battleground state polls released from YouGov/CBS on Sunday. YouGov has been doing a battleground tracker of 11 battleground states in addition to individual state polls so far this year. However, Arizona has not been included in that tracker. Nor has YouGov reported individualized results in any of the three states today before now. This is a long way of saying that there is no direct, in-house comparison for any of the three polls below.
Arizona:
| Changes (August 7) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Toss Up Clinton | Toss Up Trump | |
Nevada:
The same dynamic may be closer to being a reality in Nevada as well. The FHQ weighted average has been narrowly favoring Trump in the Silver state, but the it has been approaching zero over time. At Trump +0.04 after the addition of this YouGov survey Nevada, the average may push across the partisan line into Clinton territory with the any additional pro-Clinton poll result. Both Arizona and Nevada are on the Watch List below, vulnerable to a shift into Clinton's column.
Virginia:
The Old Dominion, too, is moving in the Clinton-Kaine ticket's direction. But Virginia has consistently been leaning blue. The difference now on the after side of the two national conventions is that the polling margins have been increasing, becoming a deeper shade of blue. Here at FHQ, the average is still just below that Lean/Toss Up line, and this poll has increased the margin enough to put Virginia back on the Watch List. There are no other Clinton toss ups that are in any danger of pushing over into the Lean area, but Virginia is moving closer to joining Pennsylvania in making that switch.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
VA-133
(269 | 282)
|
UT-6
(158)
|
LA-8
(55)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
AK-3
(152)
|
SD-3
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
WI-10
(188)
|
IA-6
(279 | 265) |
MO-10
(149)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
NM-5
(193)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259) |
IN-11
(139)
|
ID-4
(41)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
MI-16
(209)
|
NC-15
(323 | 230)
|
TX-38
(128)
|
NE-5
(37)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
OR-7
(216)
|
OH-18
(341 | 215)
|
KS-6
(90)
|
AL-9
(32)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
CT-7
(223)
|
NV-6
(197)
|
SC-9
(84)
|
KY-8
(23)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
ME-4
(227)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
OK-7
(15)
|
MN-10
(149)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
WA-12
(161)
|
PA-20
(256)
|
MS-6
(164)
|
TN-11
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arizona
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
South Carolina
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Utah
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/5/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/4/16)
The Potential Impact of Divisiveness in the 2016 Presidential Campaign
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The Electoral College Map (8/5/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/4/16)
The Potential Impact of Divisiveness in the 2016 Presidential Campaign
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
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