Sunday, August 7, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/7/16)

Latest Update



New State Polls (8/7/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
8/2-8/5
+/- 4.8%
1095 likely voters
42
44
5
+2
+0.18
Nevada
8/2-8/5
+/- 4.6%
993 likely voters
43
41
6
+2
+0.04
Virginia
8/2-8/5
+/- 3.7%
1181 likely voters
49
37
5
+12
+4.30


Polling Quick Hits:
There were a trio of battleground state polls released from YouGov/CBS on Sunday. YouGov has been doing a battleground tracker of 11 battleground states in addition to individual state polls so far this year. However, Arizona has not been included in that tracker. Nor has YouGov reported individualized results in any of the three states today before now. This is a long way of saying that there is no direct, in-house comparison for any of the three polls below.

Arizona:
Changes (August 7)
StateBeforeAfter
ArizonaToss Up ClintonToss Up Trump
The Grand Canyon state is back on the Trump side of the partisan line. At this point, Arizona is close enough to tied that any result that runs counter to the current average leader is likely to shift the balance toward the other candidate. That was true earlier in the week when a Clinton-positive poll in Arizona tipped the average in her direction. And it is true today with a Trump +2 bringing the FHQ average in Arizona back to him.


Nevada:
The same dynamic may be closer to being a reality in Nevada as well. The FHQ weighted average has been narrowly favoring Trump in the Silver state, but the it has been approaching zero over time. At Trump +0.04 after the addition of this YouGov survey Nevada, the average may push across the partisan line into Clinton territory with the any additional pro-Clinton poll result.  Both Arizona and Nevada are on the Watch List below, vulnerable to a shift into Clinton's column.


Virginia:
The Old Dominion, too, is moving in the Clinton-Kaine ticket's direction. But Virginia has consistently been leaning blue. The difference now on the after side of the two national conventions is that the polling margins have been increasing, becoming a deeper shade of blue. Here at FHQ, the average is still just below that Lean/Toss Up line, and this poll has increased the margin enough to put Virginia back on the Watch List. There are no other Clinton toss ups that are in any danger of pushing over into the Lean area, but Virginia is moving closer to joining Pennsylvania in making that switch.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
VA-133
(269 | 282)
UT-6
(158)
LA-8
(55)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
AK-3
(152)
SD-3
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
IA-6
(279 | 265)
MO-10
(149)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(32)
NM-5
(193)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
IN-11
(139)
ID-4
(41)
VT-3
(35)
MI-16
(209)
NC-15
(323 | 230)
TX-38
(128)
NE-5
(37)
CA-55
(90)
OR-7
(216)
OH-18
(341 | 215)
KS-6
(90)
AL-9
(32)
NY-29
(119)
CT-7
(223)
NV-6
(197)
SC-9
(84)
KY-8
(23)
IL-20
(139)
ME-4
(227)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
MN-10
(149)
CO-9
(236)
GA-16
(180)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
WA-12
(161)
PA-20
(256)
MS-6
(164)
TN-11
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.



The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Missouri
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Utah
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Virginia
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.





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