Monday, August 8, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/8/16)

Latest Update



New State Polls (8/8/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Georgia
8/6-8/7
+/- 4.0%
615 likely voters
44
37
10
+7
+0.16
Pennsylvania
7/31-8/4
+/- 3.53%
772 likely voters
46
37
7
+9
+5.70
Utah
7/18-8/4
+/- 3.34%
858 likely voters
25
37
7
+12
+6.15


Polling Quick Hits:
A new work week brings another set of state-level polls of the presidential race. The three new surveys offer a surprise, a new normal (perhaps) and a back to (some semblance) of normal.

Georgia:
Changes (August 8)
StateBeforeAfter
UtahToss Up TrumpLean Trump
The surprise comes from Georgia. One could probably talk FHQ into the idea that maybe, just maybe, Clinton is up by three points in the Peach state (as the recent AJC poll did). That seems a reasonable upper limit for Clinton in Georgia in the days following the national conventions. But a seven point advantage -- like the one from JMC Analytics -- stretches that  range into outlier territory (pending further evidence).

However, even with that poll included, Georgia remains just on the Trump side of the partisan line. The Peach state joins Arizona and Nevada as Trump toss ups on the cusp of pushing over that barrier into Clinton's side of the Electoral College Spectrum. All three states have averages within 0.14 points of each other and within 0.2 points of turning blue. On the weight of the JMC Analytics survey, Georgia now also joins the Watch List.


Pennsylvania:
The Susquehanna poll of the Keystone state provides the "new normal" poll. It absolutely could be that another poll placing the margin in Pennsylvania around +10 -- the lean-strong line -- is part of a post-convention bounce for Secretary Clinton. Although, one could also argue that the recent bevy of polls in that +10 range echoes past, Obama era polling in the commonwealth, and that perhaps Pennsylvania is reverting to form: tantalizing to Republican nominees, but just enough out of reach. In any event, Pennsylvania holds its cell in the Spectrum and inches closer to coming off the Watch List (and becoming a more comfortable Lean Clinton state).


Utah:
The "back to normal" -- but only barely -- survey comes out of Utah. The Beehive state has shown a much closer than normal margin between the two major party nominees all year. But the latest from Dan Jones indicates a margin that is at least moving in the direction of normal, which is to say Republican, direction. Of course, the FHQ weighted average has always favored Trump while being about 40 points off in terms of where past Republican nominees had been relative to their competition. The 12 point Trump advantage in the survey was enough to push the average in Utah above the toss up-lean line and continue to keep it off the Watch List.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
VA-133
(269 | 282)
AK-3
(158)
LA-8
(55)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
MO-10
(155)
SD-3
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
IA-6
(279 | 265)
UT-6
(145)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(32)
NM-5
(193)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
IN-11
(139)
ID-4
(41)
VT-3
(35)
MI-16
(209)
NC-15
(323 | 230)
TX-38
(128)
NE-5
(37)
CA-55
(90)
OR-7
(216)
OH-18
(341 | 215)
KS-6
(90)
AL-9
(32)
NY-29
(119)
CT-7
(223)
NV-6
(197)
SC-9
(84)
KY-8
(23)
IL-20
(139)
ME-4
(227)
GA-16
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
MN-10
(149)
CO-9
(236)
AZ-11
(175)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
WA-12
(161)
PA-20
(256)
MS-6
(164)
TN-11
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.



The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
South Carolina
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Virginia
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.





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