Tuesday, August 9, 2016

The Electoral College Map (8/9/16)

Latest Update



New State Polls (8/9/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
7/30-8/7
+/- 3.0%
1056 likely voters
43
43
3
+0
+2.27
Illinois
7/11-7/14
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
51
32
--
+18
--
Illinois
8/1-8/4
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
51
32
--
+18
+19.03
Kentucky
7/31-8/1
+/- 4.4%
500 registered voters
36
49
7
+13
+13.00
Missouri
8/5-8/6
+/- 3.0%
1280 likely voters
42
44
7
+2
+4.50
North Carolina
8/5-8/7
+/- 3.4%
830 likely voters
43
41
8
+2
+1.88
Ohio
7/30-8/7
+/- 3.4%
812 likely voters
44
42
4
+2
+1.87
Pennsylvania
7/30-8/7
+/- 3.4%
815 likely voters
48
39
3
+9
+5.95


Polling Quick Hits:
Eight new polls from seven states are new to the FHQ polling dataset. The bulk of them are reinforcing polls; those within range of the FHQ graduated weighted average margin in the states.


Florida:
Three of the those polls -- battleground state surveys from Quinnipiac -- fell mostly in line with where the majority of post-convention polls have found the three most electoral vote-rich states. Florida and Ohio are tightly contested and Pennsylvania appears to be reverting to form as the margin in the Keystone state continues to grow for Clinton.

Though Florida and Ohio are close, Florida has tended to lean a bit more heavily toward Clinton given the full universe of 2016 data from both states. That is not the case here as Quinnipiac finds Florida tied and Clinton with a small lead in Ohio. But then the previous Quinnipiac surveys have had a seemingly Republican-leaning house effect relative to other polling outlets. The transposing of Florida and Ohio may be a function of that. Of course, it should be noted that Florida swung more intensely toward Clinton since the last Q-poll in the Sunshine state (+5 in Clinton's direction) than in Ohio (+3 toward Clinton since July).


Illinois:
There is very little to say about the two newly added polls out of the Land of Lincoln. Both from Democratic firm, Norrington Petts (one from July and one from August), find Clinton ahead by a similar margin to Illinois survey a month ago. Additionally, both polls show a race stuck in neutral in that time with Clinton up 19. Both nominees are running behind their 2012 counterparts, but the margin is approximately where it was in November 2012: comfortably Democratic.


Kentucky:
The first look at neighboring Kentucky indicates a similarly comfortable, albeit, Republican state. Harper's survey has Trump ahead by double digits, but has the New York businessman lagging about ten points behind the pace Romney established in 2012. Clinton, meanwhile, is in range of Obama 2012. Under normal circumstances one might expect any undecideds to break toward the Republican, but that is less than clear in a cycle that has proven anything but normal thus far.


Missouri:
Changes (August 9)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriLean TrumpToss Up Trump
Another poll in from the Show-Me state makes that recent Trump +10 from Survey USA seem more and more out of step. The latest from Remington finds Trump ahead by a narrower two points and much closer to the July Mason-Dixon poll that had Clinton ahead by one. Missouri's a state that had moved toward the Republicans over the last few cycles and away from the quadrennial bellwether it had once been. Still, like a number of states in its general vicinity on the Electoral College Spectrum below (see especially Georgia), the average in Missouri has contracted some in 2016. Rather than being firmly planted in the Lean Republican area, the Show-Me state has instead jumped back and forth across the toss up/lean line on the Republican side. Today's poll was enough to push it back over into the Toss Up Trump category, but keep it on the Watch List (within a fraction of a point of moving back into Lean Trump territory).


North Carolina:
PPP has made up a little more than a third of the 2016 polling in North Carolina, and while other firms' polls have jumped around relative to each other, the PPP surveys have always seen a close race between Clinton and Trump in the Tar Heel state. This August poll is no exception. The difference is that Clinton is now the candidate with the lead, and one in this poll that is right on the FHQ average in the state: close but on the Clinton side of the partisan line.


Ohio:
And the interesting thing now is that Ohio is now right there with North Carolina after a period in which there had been some space between the two in the FHQ averages. Like the PPP North Carolina poll, the Q-poll of Ohio is right in line with where the average is in the state. And the one trend that is clear here and in all the states above is that the polling is tilting in the immediate aftermath of the conventions and Trump's rough week last week toward Clinton.


Pennsylvania:
Another day and another poll out of Pennsylvania showing Clinton up by a margin hovering around the strong-lean line (+10 points). But this one represents quite a shift, in-house. The last Quinnipiac survey of the commonwealth showed Trump up six points in a multi-candidate race. However, this month Clinton is ahead nine; a 15 point shift. Although it has moved in the same direction as the Florida poll -- toward Clinton -- the change is three times greater. That is a pretty significant change month over month. One that for the first time brings the Quinnipiac numbers much more in line with the rest of the current polling in the Keystone state. Again, Pennsylvania is a state that Trump needs to get to 270. And if Quinnipiac is showing a nearly 10 point advantage for Clinton, well...

Pennsylvania retains its position on the spectrum below and inches closer still to moving off the Watch List into a safer -- from the Clinton perspective -- position within the Lean category.



NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42
(7)
NJ-14
(175)
VA-133
(269 | 282)
MO-10
(158)
TN-11
(58)
MD-10
(17)
DE-3
(178)
NH-43
(273 | 269)
AK-3
(148)
LA-8
(47)
RI-4
(21)
WI-10
(188)
IA-6
(279 | 265)
UT-6
(145)
SD-3
(39)
MA-11
(32)
NM-5
(193)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
IN-11
(139)
ND-3
(36)
VT-3
(35)
MI-16
(209)
NC-15
(323 | 230)
TX-38
(128)
ID-4
(33)
CA-55
(90)
OR-7
(216)
OH-18
(341 | 215)
KS-6
(90)
NE-5
(29)
NY-29
(119)
CT-7
(223)
NV-6
(197)
SC-9
(84)
AL-9
(24)
IL-20
(139)
ME-4
(227)
GA-16
(191)
AR-6
(75)
OK-7
(15)
MN-10
(149)
CO-9
(236)
AZ-11
(175)
MT-3
(69)
WV-5
(8)
WA-12
(161)
PA-20
(256)
MS-6
(164)
KY-8
(66)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Virginia (all Clinton's toss up states plus Virginia), he would have 282 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.

To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 New Hampshire and Virginia are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Virginia and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


*Due to the way in which states with no polling are treated in 2016 by FHQ -- uniform swing -- South Carolina has seen its "average" margin shrink. In the last month, as more polling data has been accrued, that average uniform swing has increased to just a shade more than one and a half points toward Clinton. That development has pushed South Carolina further away from the Strong Trump category and off the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Arizona
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Arkansas
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Missouri
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey
from Strong Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.





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