New State Polls (9/2/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iowa
|
8/31-9/1
|
+/- 3.9%
|
600 likely voters
|
39.1
|
44.2
|
8.0
|
+5.1
|
+1.13
| |
Kansas
|
8/22-8/23
|
+/- 1.55%
|
3966 likely voters
|
37
|
44
|
9
|
+7
|
+7.30
| |
Virginia
|
8/30-9/1
|
+/- 3.4%
|
800 likely voters
|
43.5
|
43.0
|
--
|
+0.5
|
+6.00
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Heading into a long Labor Day weekend, there were just a few newly released surveys. Emerson recently came off a summer hiatus and the landline only firm has offered a week's worth of polls that again are either slightly out of step with other recent polling or the beginning signs of a shift. If it is the former, then there is a noticeable Trump-leaning house effect at work. New surveys from both Iowa and Virginia today highlight this issue.
Iowa:
Anything in Iowa not showing a race stuck in a range from about Clinton +3 to Trump +3 has to this point in the race for the White House been an outlier. The new Emerson poll finds Trump up five points and seemingly fits in that outlier category. But again, it is not far outside of the range; Clinton is on the low end of her Iowa range here and Trump on the upper end of his. That could be a move in Trump's direction or it could be the type of house effect mentioned above. Polling has picked up some in Iowa, but it is among a group of states where more polling would be desirable.
This poll lowered the Iowa average here at FHQ enough to push it past North Carolina on the Electoral College Spectrum below.
Kansas:
Nearby in Kansas, a new Remington survey provides yet more evidence that the race for the Sunflower state's six electoral votes is just closer than usual in 2016. Kansas is still very much a red state, but Trump continues to lag about 15 points behind where Romney was there in 2012. That closes the gap for Clinton, who is right around Obama 2012, but not enough to make Kansas anything other than a lighter shade of red.
Virginia:
For the second consecutive day a poll was released in Virginia indicating a much closer race than has been the case throughout August. FHQ does not want to explain away either that poll or the new Emerson poll in the Old Dominion. After all, a narrowing nationally would likely mean at least some narrowing in a tangentially competitive Virginia. But the Hampton poll yesterday had a higher of undecideds than has been the case overall. That was true of the last poll they conducted in Virginia as well. That could be not pushing/prompting leaners or something else. But how those leaners break between Clinton and Trump may increase or decrease the margin in the surveys. FHQ will not back track and dip back into the Emerson issues. But the methodology -- landline only -- may be driving what is being witnessed in that series of surveys.
The most onlookers can hope for is additional polling from other firms to aid in determining evidence as to what the true answer is to what FHQ will call the Emerson question. Both that poll and the Hampton poll pulled the average in Virginia down to six points; just enough to put the state back on the Watch List
--
Compared to yesterday, the map again remains unchanged. However, the Watch List barely adds one state (Virginia). On the Electoral College Spectrum things held steady for the most part. Iowa switched spots with North Carolina, reversing their recent shift.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
PA-203
(269 | 289)
|
MO-10
(155)
|
TN-11
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
LA-8
(47)
|
RI-4
(21)
|
ME-4
(182)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
KS-6
(142)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(32)
|
NM-5
(187)
|
OH-18
(320 | 236) |
UT-6
(136)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
VT-3
(35)
|
WI-10
(197)
|
NC-15
(335 | 218)
|
TX-38
(130)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
CA-55
(90)
|
OR-7
(204)
|
IA-6
(341 | 203)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
NY-29
(119)
|
MI-16
(220)
|
NV-6
(347 | 197)
|
MS-6
(81)
|
WV-5
(24)
|
IL-20
(139)
|
CT-7
(227)
|
GA-16
(191)
|
AR-6
(75)
|
AL-9
(19)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
CO-9
(236)
|
AZ-11
(175)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
MN-10
(161)
|
VA-13
(249)
|
SC-9
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Clinton's toss up states plus Pennsylvania), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning Pennsylvania and Trump, New Hampshire, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/1/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/31/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/30/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
The Electoral College Map (9/1/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/31/16)
The Electoral College Map (8/30/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
No comments:
Post a Comment