New State Polls (9/22/16)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
9/12-9/14
|
+/- 4.5%
|
484 likely voters
|
33
|
37
|
19
|
+2
|
+1.55
| |
California
|
9/12-9/14
|
+/- 4.3%
|
515 likely voters
|
57
|
30
|
9
|
+27
|
--
| |
California
|
9/9-9/18
|
+/- 4.5%
|
1055 likely voters
|
47
|
31
|
4
|
+16
|
+20.50
| |
Colorado
|
9/14-9/18
|
+/- 6.3%
|
350 likely voters
|
41
|
34
|
10
|
+7
|
--
| |
Colorado
|
9/13-9/21
|
+/- 3.9%
|
644 likely voters
|
44
|
42
|
2
|
+2
|
+5.84
| |
Florida
|
9/19-9/21
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
44
|
45
|
7
|
+2
|
+2.16
| |
Georgia
|
9/13-9/21
|
+/- 3.9%
|
638 likely voters
|
40
|
47
|
4
|
+7
|
+1.76
| |
Illinois
|
9/19-9/21
|
+/- 3.6%
|
700 likely voters
|
44.5
|
38.7
|
7.3
|
+5.8
|
+14.68
| |
Iowa
|
9/13-9/21
|
+/- 4.0%
|
612 likely voters
|
37
|
44
|
5
|
+7
|
+0.51
| |
Louisiana
|
9/15-9/17
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
32.6
|
48.9
|
10.8
|
+16.3
|
+13.23
| |
Maryland
|
9/17-9/20
|
+/- 4.3%
|
514 likely voters
|
58
|
25
|
8
|
+33
|
+31.15
| |
Nevada
|
9/12-9/14
|
+/- 4.9%
|
398 likely voters
|
40
|
42
|
10
|
+2
|
+0.29
| |
North Carolina
|
9/16-9/19
|
+/- 3.6%
|
782 likely voters
|
41
|
41
|
5
|
+/-0
|
+0.88
| |
Virginia
|
9/11-9/20
|
+/- 3.4%
|
841 likely voters
|
44
|
37
|
9
|
+7
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
9/13-9/21
|
+/- 3.8%
|
659 likely voters
|
45
|
39
|
6
|
+6
|
+5.94
| |
Washington
|
9/12-9/14
|
+/- 4.4%
|
505 likely voters
|
38
|
28
|
14
|
+10
|
+12.62
| |
Wisconsin
|
9/19-9/20
|
+/- 3.6%
|
700 likely voters
|
44.5
|
38.4
|
4.1
|
+6.1
|
+7.03
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
There is a lot to look at today with just 47 days until Election Day: 17 new surveys from 14 states.
Arizona:
Other than the Cronkite survey of Arizona at the end of August, this Insights West poll is the lowest share of support either candidate has garnered in the Grand Canyon state all year. Both polls share a high number of undecideds, but the bottom line, perhaps, is that this is another survey with Trump ahead but in the toss up area. His lead there has stabilized as September has not seen Trump trail Clinton in Arizona.
California:
Clinton's 47 percent in that PPIC poll jumps off the screen at first glance except that it is actually an improvement over her share of support in last PPIC poll from July. She may be lagging behind Obama in 2012 in the Golden state, but Trump continues to trail not only Clinton but Romney's pace four years ago as well. California is still blue.
Colorado:
The two polls out of the Centennial state are pretty representative of the polls over there: Clinton at or just above 40 percent and Trump moving around from the mid-30s to around 40 percent. Colorado could be close, but it will take Trump's support firming up some there to pull it off.
Florida:
Yesterday was a good day for Clinton in Florida, but the polling there has been back and forth throughout September. And there was a snap back toward Trump today in the latest Suffolk survey. Of course, while the polling has been volatile, the average margin in the Sunshine state here at FHQ has not. Clinton's advantage has been stuck in that two to three point range for a while now.
Georgia:
In the Peach state, Trump has found a consistent footing in the mid-40s; something confirmed in Quinnipiac's first survey in the state. On the other hand, Clinton looks a lot like Trump does in a number of the states he will likely need to get to and over 270. In other words, she is stuck around 40 percent and playing catch up.
Illinois:
So far in 2016, the Clinton-Trump race in Illinois has been only sporadically surveyed. It is a shame, then, that the two most recent polls -- two surveys showing a Democrat dipping into the 40s -- come from landline-only Emerson and Loras (whose only other poll was a big outlier in Iowa earlier in the summer). Look, if the other poll from Emerson today -- a Clinton +6 in Wisconsin -- is right on the mark, then it would be highly unusual for Illinois to closer. Or put it this way: if Clinton is only ahead by around six in Illinois, then the expectation would be that Trump is leading in Wisconsin. None of the polling there has borne that out to this point.
Iowa:
Like Arizona and Georgia, Iowa has seen a string of Trump leads in the polls during September. That streak continues in the latest Quinnipiac survey of the Hawkeye state. What is more is that the near ties in August have been displaced by results that would fall in the Lean Trump category. Those are the types of polls, when strung together, that can build a durable lead. What is Trump's 40 percent problem in a number of the Lean Clinton states is Clinton's problem in the Arizona, Georgia and Iowa trio.
Louisiana:
One could focus on how Trump continues to fall short of Mitt Romney's share of the 2012 vote in states like Louisiana, but that tends to miss the point. Clinton is running well enough behind Trump that the Pelican state is still safely red; off to the far right hand column on the Electoral College Spectrum below.
Maryland:
Like Wyoming yesterday, both candidate are behind the marks set by the 2012 candidates in Maryland. But that matters less in view of the fact that the Old Line state is so far off to the Democratic side of the Spectrum.
Nevada:
Nevada is another state, like a handful above, that has been good to Trump in in September. With only one exception, the New York businessman has led every poll in that stretch but the very first one of the month. The narrow Clinton lead that developed following the conventions disappeared and has been replaced by a narrow Trump advantage in the state. That edge can only grow so much as long as the poll margins remain as close as they are in polls like the Insights West survey.
North Carolina:
The Tar Heel state has seen no such polling streak for either candidate over the last month. Clinton's overall advantage in the state here at FHQ continues to shrink. But the range of results it a pretty tight band around something close to zero. It is fitting, then, that the new survey of the state from Siena shows just that: a tie. North Carolina, along with Iowa, Nevada and Ohio, are all within a fraction of a point of shifting across the partisan line. Unlike the other three, though, there is no clear trend toward Trump. Instead, North Carolina resembles a closer version of volatile Florida.
Virginia:
As FHQ mentioned in yesterday's update, Virginia is one of those "sticky" Lean Clinton states where the polling (and resulting average) has consistently had Clinton out front by a margin beyond the Lean/Toss Up line (in the Lean category). The two new polls of the Old Dominion from Roanoke and Quinnipiac do nothing to shake up that particular conclusion.
Washington:
The margin in the new Insights West survey looks about right in Washington if past elections are any guide. However, both candidates are collectively only pulling in the support of about two-thirds of the respondents in the poll. That has both Clinton and Trump well behind where Obama and Romney were in the Evergreen state four years ago. Washington is underpolled, but the picture gleaned from what data there is still finds the state in a comfortable area for the Democrats.
Wisconsin:
In the Badger state, just wait on other polling. The Emerson poll there may be in line with expectations, but standing alongside the other survey from the firm today, it looks off. Or something about the two surveys is mismatched. The clear picture in Wisconsin is that Clinton's cushion has dissipated, but that she has a durable, though small, advantage there.
--
There was some subtle shuffling on the Electoral College Spectrum today, but nothing that broke with the patterns established throughout this cycle. No states changed categories and the map and Spectrum remain largely the same. Colorado's addition to the Watch List and into a tight cluster of states (Maine, Pennsylvania and Virginia) along that Lean/Toss Up line.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
NH-43
(269 | 273)
|
TX-38
(155)
|
LA-8
(58)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
RI-43
(273 | 269)
|
MS-6
(116)
|
TN-11
(50)
|
MA-11
(28)
|
NM-5
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
SC-9
(110)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
VT-3
(31)
|
MN-10
(193)
|
NC-15
(317 | 236) |
AK-3
(101)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
WI-10
(203)
|
OH-18
(335 | 221)
|
UT-6
(98)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(219)
|
NV-6
(203)
|
KS-6
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
IL-20
(135)
|
VA-13
(232)
|
IA-6
(197)
|
AR-6
(86)
|
OK-7
(24)
|
WA-12
(147)
|
ME-4
(236)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
IN-11
(80)
|
WV-5
(17)
|
CT-17
(154)
|
CO-9
(245)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
MT-3
(69)
|
AL-9
(12)
|
OR-7
(161)
|
PA-20
(265)
|
MO-10
(164)
|
KY-8
(66)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Clinton's toss up states plus New Hampshire), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Rhode Island are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning New Hampshire and Trump, Rhode Island, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Colorado
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Maine
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Missouri
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
North Carolina
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Rhode Island
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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