Here are a few thoughts on that Storified from Twitter:
To the day's polls...
New State Polls (9/23/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas
|
9/15-9/17
|
+/- 3.4%
|
831 likely voters
|
34
|
55
|
4
|
+21
|
+14.18
| |
Georgia
|
9/20-9/22
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
38
|
44
|
12
|
+6
|
+2.04
| |
Nevada
|
9/10-9/19
|
+/- 4.9%
|
400 likely voters
|
42
|
42
|
4
|
+/-0
|
+0.27
| |
North Carolina
|
9/10-9/19
|
+/- 4.9%
|
400 likely voters
|
44
|
40
|
2
|
+4
|
+1.01
| |
Ohio
|
9/10-9/19
|
+/- 4.9%
|
400 likely voters
|
39
|
41
|
4
|
+2
|
+0.69
| |
Pennsylvania
|
9/10-9/19
|
+/- 4.9%
|
400 likely voters
|
46
|
38
|
3
|
+8
|
+5.94
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
A slower day to end the work week. Two traditional red states saw new polls as well as some battleground states surveys from GQR.
Arkansas:
| Changes (September 23) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
Georgia:
Compared to the last JMC poll from August in the Peach state, the two major party candidates have swapped positions. Now, it is Trump ahead. The survey provides a little more evidence that Georgia is tighter than 2012, but still a red state. Yes, the margin is still close-ish here, but it is growing as Trump continues his sweep of the September polls.
Nevada:
The first of today's GQR battleground polls in Nevada shows exactly what the firm did there back during its original June wave: a tie. The Silver state has slipped back into the red side of the partisan line, but only just there after a string of pro-Trump polls throughout September. This GQR survey is the first break in that streak, but serves to keep the underlying FHQ average in Nevada close. Close but favoring Trump for now, though.
North Carolina:
GQR also weighed in in North Carolina. The Democratic firm found the former Secretary of State up four, but that was down from the ten point advantage she had in their last poll in the Tar Heel state in June. Where that one may have been an outlier, this one is not, at least not as much. The established range in North Carolina has both Clinton and Trump bouncing around between 40 and 45 percent from poll to poll. The lead may change hands, but more often than not both candidates are within that range. That sort of clustering will produce a close race more often than not.
Ohio:
The same sort of story from North Carolina can extend to Ohio as well. The difference is that the two candidates are not sharing the same range. In the Buckeye state, Trump has found his support in the 40-44 percent range during September while Clinton has lagged in a 37-41 percent window for most polls in that same period. That is right where GQR plots the race right now. Now, obviously, that points to some Trump advantage in the state; an advantage that is not reflected here at FHQ. The Ohio average is slowly but surely tracking toward zero. If Trump's lead holds up in future polls, then that shift across the partisan line will occur. But that has not happened as of yet.
Pennsylvania:
Yes, yes, this GQR survey is one from a Democratic-leaning firm. Yet, there is it in black and white that Clinton's lead in the state -- across most polls -- has proven more durable than in other states throughout this September swoon of hers. Trump does not have to win Pennsylvania, but he will have to reach into the Lean Clinton area to pick off a state or two to get to 270. Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes, is the quickest route to that goal, but also does not look reachable at this time.
--
The addition of these polls did little to shake things up here at FHQ. North Carolina barely inched off the Watch List but remains quite close (though still favoring Clinton). Arkansas' is off the list too. Meanwhile, Arkansas and Pennsylvania shuffled around on the Spectrum. Arkansas is still very much a red state but looks a little redder now, and Pennsylvania slid up a couple of cells deeper into blue territory on the Spectrum. The latter is part of a tightly knot quartet including Colorado, Maine and Virginia.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
NH-43
(269 | 273)
|
TX-38
(155)
|
TN-11
(56)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
RI-43
(273 | 269)
|
MS-6
(116)
|
AR-6
(45)
|
MA-11
(28)
|
NM-5
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
SC-9
(110)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
VT-3
(31)
|
MN-10
(193)
|
NC-15
(317 | 236) |
AK-3
(101)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
WI-10
(203)
|
OH-18
(335 | 221)
|
UT-6
(98)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(219)
|
NV-6
(203)
|
KS-6
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
IL-20
(135)
|
VA-13
(232)
|
IA-6
(197)
|
IN-11
(86)
|
OK-7
(24)
|
WA-12
(147)
|
PA-20
(252)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
MT-3
(75)
|
WV-5
(17)
|
CT-17
(154)
|
ME-4
(256)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
KY-8
(72)
|
AL-9
(12)
|
OR-7
(161)
|
CO-9
(265)
|
MO-10
(164)
|
LA-8
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Clinton's toss up states plus New Hampshire), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Rhode Island are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning New Hampshire and Trump, Rhode Island, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Maine
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Missouri
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Rhode Island
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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