New State Polls (9/24/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
9/21-9/22
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
42.9
|
46.5
|
4.9
|
+3.6
|
+2.14
| |
Pennsylvania
|
9/19-9/23
|
+/- 5.0%
|
486 likely voters
|
40
|
38
|
6
|
+2
|
+5.76
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
The first Saturday of fall brought a couple of polls; repeats from Friday.
Georgia:
In the Peach state, a new poll from Landmark for WSBTV find yet another Trump lead. Although this one is on the low end in terms of the size of the margin, it shows growth since the last survey from Landmark at the end of July. Then, the race was basically tied. Now, the nearly four point Trump edge nudges his average in Georgia deeper into the Toss Up Trump category, moving toward a Lean. Georgia is a state where Trump is pretty firmly entrenched in the mid-40s while Clinton is hovering at or just above 40 percent. This poll is consistent with that pattern.
Pennsylvania:
This one is going to grab some attention simply because the margin is low and this is a state in the area (Lean Clinton) that Trump needs in order to get to 270. And while the margin dropped from eight points to two in a week in the Muhlenberg series, Clinton did not budge. All the movement was from Gary Johnson (-6) to Trump (+6). Trump was at 32 a week ago and that is the lowest point to which he has fallen since a June poll from GQR which just found him at 38 percent and trailing Clinton by 8. In other words, Trump's share in the poll a week ago was an outlier. This week's share of support is not. Trump's problem is still the same in Pennsylvania as it is in a number of other Lean Clinton states: He has to find a way to get to or above the 40 percent mark. This is a close poll because Clinton is at the low end of her range in the Keystone state. Rare are the times when Clinton is below about 44 percent. Muhlenberg now has two of those on a short list.
--
For the most part things held steady after adding in these two polls. Pennsylvania shuffled back to the low end of the order in quartet it is clustered with in the Electoral College Spectrum (with Colorado, Maine and Virginia). Every other figure holds steady.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
NH-43
(269 | 273)
|
TX-38
(155)
|
TN-11
(56)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
RI-43
(273 | 269)
|
MS-6
(116)
|
AR-6
(45)
|
MA-11
(28)
|
NM-5
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
SC-9
(110)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
VT-3
(31)
|
MN-10
(193)
|
NC-15
(317 | 236) |
AK-3
(101)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
WI-10
(203)
|
OH-18
(335 | 221)
|
UT-6
(98)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(219)
|
NV-6
(203)
|
KS-6
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
IL-20
(135)
|
VA-13
(232)
|
IA-6
(197)
|
IN-11
(86)
|
OK-7
(24)
|
WA-12
(147)
|
ME-4
(236)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
MT-3
(75)
|
WV-5
(17)
|
CT-17
(154)
|
CO-9
(245)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
KY-8
(72)
|
AL-9
(12)
|
OR-7
(161)
|
PA-20
(265)
|
MO-10
(164)
|
LA-8
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Clinton's toss up states plus New Hampshire), he would have 273 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire and Rhode Island are collectively the states where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. If those two states are separated with Clinton winning New Hampshire and Trump, Rhode Island, then there would be a tie in the Electoral College. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Maine
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Missouri
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Rhode Island
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/23/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/22/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/21/16)
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