New State Polls (9/25/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
9/21-9/23
|
+/- 4.4%
|
991 likely voters
|
40
|
39
|
10
|
+1
|
+4.04
| |
Maine
|
9/15-9/20
|
+/- 4.3%
|
513 likely voters
|
40
|
36
|
7
|
+4
|
+4.95
| |
Missouri
|
9/21-9/23
|
+/- 3.9%
|
1087 likely voters
|
37
|
46
|
7
|
+9
|
+7.23
| |
Utah
|
9/12-9/19
|
+/- 3.4%
|
820 likely voters
|
25
|
34
|
8
|
+9
|
+9.95
| |
Virginia
|
9/21-9/23
|
+/- 3.3%
|
1237 likely voters
|
45
|
37
|
8
|
+8
|
+6.22
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
If it is Sunday, it usually means some battleground polls from YouGov/CBS. Today was no exception as the internet-based polling firm served up new surveys from Colorado, Missouri and Virginia. Plus there was another poll added in from UNH in Maine. [...and a late add from Utah.]
Most significantly, Colorado and Maine jump the Lean/Toss Up line on the Clinton side of the Spectrum into the Toss Up Clinton area. Now, that line -- the 5 point mark -- is completely arbitrary, but the introduction of these new polls pushing the two states from Lean to Toss Up is not. To this point, Clinton had lost some of her cushion among the Toss Up states, but had maintained at least a five point lead in enough states to clear 270. That symbolic advantage is now gone, the product of a few weeks of tightening in the polls. That is good news for Trump in that a couple of states are perhaps within reach. However, it should be noted that heading into debate season Clinton still maintains at least a four point edge here at FHQ in states equalling 273 electoral votes.
Colorado:
| Changes (September 25) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
| Maine | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
There are two things worth noting about Colorado in general. First, polling in the state got off to a slow start this year, and has not really caught back up in the time since. For a battleground, it is underpolled. Second, any safety Clinton had in Colorado after the conventions has disappeared. To the extent that is about Clinton, it has to do with her campaign being unable to push significantly above 40 percent. She is still there. Meanwhile, Trump bottomed out following his post-convention comments and has subsequently rebounded, moving back into the upper 30s. Call it a regression to the equilibrium if one will.
Maine:
The Pine Tree state, too, has been underpolled, and the dynamic there is similar. Like Colorado, Clinton has been around but above 40 percent most of the year with Trump lagging behind in the mid- to upper 30s more often than not. In both cases, there is a segment of the respondents either lined up behind a third party option or undecided. That wiggle room creates quite a bit of uncertainty heading into the last six weeks of the campaign.
And that does not even factor in the fact that Maine splits the allocation of its electoral votes. FHQ will account for those congressional district electoral votes in not only Maine but Nebraska as well starting in October.
Missouri:
The first pair of states resemble each other, but so does the second pair. Only, instead of Missouri and Virginia shifting in concert, they are in some ways mirror images of each other on different sides of the partisan line. In both cases, one candidate has carved out a position in the mid- to upper 40s as the other has remained stuck in the upper 30s. That is a recipe for a Lean state no matter the side and that is exactly where Missouri and Virginia fall.
Trump has the advantage in the Show-Me state and that lead has only grow since narrowing in the lead up to the conventions. In the time since, Clinton support has ebbed a bit, taking her back into the 30s, while Trump has stabilized in the mid-40s. And that is just what YouGov found there in their latest poll of Missouri.
Virginia:
The firm's findings in Virginia are similar, but transposed. The Old Dominion was never really as close as Missouri was, but the post-convention period saw the Clinton-Kaine ticket's fortunes swell. Those double digit leads have since subsided and the polling in Virginia has settled down with Clinton occupying the mid-40s position and Trump fighting to get to and/or above 40 percent on a consistent basis.
UPDATE:
Utah:
Trump is still likely to win Utah and its six electoral votes because Clinton is mired in the mid-20s and the third party candidates are splitting the remainder. But it is still eye-opening to see the third party candidate collectively pulling in as much support (34 percent) as the overall leader in the poll.
--
Yes, Colorado and Maine shift categories on the map and Spectrum, but both remain on Watch List, now on the opposite side of the Lean/Toss Up line. Virginia and Missouri maintain the same shades on the map, but shift subtly on the Spectrum and off the Watch List below. Utah joins the Watch List as it has inched to within a very small fraction of a point of pushing into the Strong Trump category.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
ME-4
(264)
|
MS-6
(126)
|
TN-11
(56)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
CO-93
(273 | 274)
|
MO-10
(120)
|
AR-6
(45)
|
MA-11
(28)
|
NM-5
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
SC-9
(110)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
VT-3
(31)
|
MN-10
(193)
|
NC-15
(317 | 236) |
AK-3
(101)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
WI-10
(203)
|
OH-18
(335 | 221)
|
KS-6
(98)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(219)
|
NV-6
(203)
|
UT-6
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
IL-20
(135)
|
VA-13
(232)
|
IA-6
(197)
|
IN-11
(86)
|
OK-7
(24)
|
WA-12
(147)
|
PA-20
(252)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
MT-3
(75)
|
WV-5
(17)
|
CT-17
(154)
|
NH-4
(256)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
KY-8
(72)
|
AL-9
(12)
|
OR-7
(161)
|
RI-4
(260)
|
TX-38
(164)
|
LA-8
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Maine
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Rhode Island
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/24/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/23/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/22/16)
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