New State Polls (9/28/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan
|
9/27
|
+/- 2.2%
|
1956 likely voters
|
46
|
41
|
4
|
+5
|
+5.92
| |
Nebraska
|
9/25-9/27
|
+/- 3.6%
|
700 likely voters
|
29.3
|
55.7
|
6.6
|
+26.4
|
+20.59
| |
Washington
|
9/25-9/26
|
+/- 3.6%
|
700 likely voters
|
44.2
|
38.4
|
5.6
|
+5.8
|
+11.19
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Midweek brought the first post-debate state-level poll and a couple of others from Emerson that overlapped with the first debate on Monday night.
Michigan:
That first completely post-debate poll was from Mitchell Research out of the Great Lakes state. Throughout September, the Michigan average margin has narrowed as the polls have ranged from about a one to six point Clinton advantage. This latest Mitchell poll is on the upper side of that spread, but shaves a point off the early September survey from the firm. In the grand scheme of things in this race, it represents no real change. However, it is noteworthy that this is Trump's third consecutive poll in the 40s (rather than below that threshold).
Nebraska:
In Nebraska, Emerson's debate-straddling survey finds Trump inching up to within range of where Romney was in the state four years ago. Clinton, on the other hand, is lagging well behind not only Trump in one of the reddest states, but trailing Obama's final share of support by around ten points as well.
Washington:
If the trajectory of the race is toward a more normal position in the Cornhusker state, the opposite is true in Washington. There, though the polling has been light, the margin has been off the track as compared to the vote distribution in the Evergreen state during the Obama era. One thing can be said about the polling in Washington: it has been quite volatile. Clinton has led across the full set of surveys there in 2016, but both candidates' shares of support has varied widely; Clinton within a 14 point window and Trump in a 19 point range. Those are wild fluctuations given such a sporadically surveyed state.
--
Michigan trades spots with Virginia on the Spectrum and moves onto the Watch List. Other than that, all remains unchanged from a day ago.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
ME-4
(264)
|
MS-6
(126)
|
TN-11
(56)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
CO-93
(273 | 274)
|
MO-10
(120)
|
AR-6
(45)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
NM-5
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
SC-9
(110)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
MN-10
(193)
|
NC-15
(317 | 236) |
AK-3
(101)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
WI-10
(203)
|
OH-18
(335 | 221)
|
KS-6
(98)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
VA-13
(216)
|
NV-6
(203)
|
UT-6
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
IL-20
(135)
|
MI-16
(232)
|
IA-6
(197)
|
IN-11
(86)
|
OK-7
(24)
|
WA-12
(147)
|
NH-4
(236)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
MT-3
(75)
|
WV-5
(17)
|
CT-17
(154)
|
RI-4
(240)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
KY-8
(72)
|
AL-9
(12)
|
OR-7
(161)
|
PA-20
(260)
|
TX-38
(164)
|
LA-8
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Maine
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Rhode Island
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/27/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/26/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/25/16)
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