New State Polls (9/29/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
California
|
9/27-9/28
|
+/- 3.6%
|
732 likely voters
|
59
|
33
|
3
|
+26
|
+21.47
| |
Colorado
|
9/27-9/28
|
+/- 3.7%
|
694 likely voters
|
46
|
40
|
6
|
+6
|
+3.42
| |
Florida
|
9/27-9/28
|
+/- 3.4%
|
826 likely voters
|
45
|
43
|
8
|
+2
|
+2.08
| |
Missouri
|
9/26-9/27
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1279 likely voters
|
39
|
49
|
--
|
+10
|
+7.45
| |
North Carolina
|
9/27-9/28
|
+/- 3.3%
|
861 likely voters
|
44
|
42
|
7
|
+2
|
+1.15
| |
Pennsylvania
|
9/27-9/28
|
+/- 3.3%
|
886 likely voters
|
45
|
39
|
8
|
+6
|
+4.79
| |
South Carolina
|
9/18-9/26
|
+/- 4.5%
|
475 likely voters
|
38
|
42
|
11
|
+4
|
+7.91
| |
Virginia
|
9/27-9/28
|
+/- 3.4%
|
811 likely voters
|
46
|
40
|
5
|
+6
|
+5.62
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Thursday brought eight new state-level polls, seven of which were in the field after Monday's first presidential debate. Either the jury is still out on the true impact or the difference thus far is negligible. FHQ would tend to land on the jury still being out, but that is a position rooted in the desire for a bit more data to accrue first.
California:
There is nothing much to see here. Not only does the new Survey USA poll of the Golden state echo the survey the firm released in early September, but it looks a lot like the final results in the state in 2012.
Colorado:
Somehow this is the first PPP survey of Colorado this year, and as a result, it lacks a natural point of comparison. That is relevant because this survey was in the field completely after the first debate. What looks like Clinton jumping out to a lead, then, may be nothing more than a poll inconsistent with the other recent polls in the state. The frequency of polls being released in the Centennial state has picked up, so more data will be along soon enough to help settle the matter.
Florida:
More of the same in the Sunshine state: Clinton and Trump have traded leads in recent polls there and the margins have been within a +/-3 point range in both directions. This new PPP survey fits in that window and also is little different from the early September poll the firm conducted in the state.
Missouri:
After narrowing some following the conventions, Missouri has subsequently moved in the opposite direction in the time since. The polling margins have climbed to around the Strong/Lean line and pull the FHQ graduated weighted average in the Show-Me state up toward that threshold as well. The former bellwether is lodged well within the Lean Trump category for the time being.
North Carolina:
Most of the Florida description above applies in the Tar Heel state as well. The range is similar as is the narrow Clinton advantage. The only difference is that there was a swing in the PPP series of polls in the state. Whereas the survey last week found Trump up a couple of points, this post-debate poll has Clinton up two.
Pennsylvania:
For starters, the fourth of the PPP surveys today closely resembles the firm's last poll in Pennsylvania. Yes, that six point margin breaks with the slew of more narrow polls out of the Keystone state over the last week or so. However, the simple truth of the matter is that each candidates' share of support is within their established ranges there. It is just that Clinton is at the top end of her range and Trump on the lower end of his.
South Carolina:
Down in the Palmetto state, September has ushered in a series polls finding a double digit lead for Trump. That was a departure from some of the narrower survey margins that emerged in the post-convention period. But this Winthrop poll is a return to those tighter results in a state that has moved and seemingly taken root in the Lean Trump area.
Virginia:
Finally in Virginia, the race seems to have settled into a solid Lean-level lead for Clinton. Clinton, more often than not in recent polls, can be found somewhere in the mid-40s while Trump tends to trail somewhere around the 40 percent mark. That is as true in this latest PPP survey of the Old Dominion as it was when the firm was last in the field there earlier in September.
--
These polls did little to change things here at FHQ. Virginia came back on the Watch List and shuffled again with Michigan on the Spectrum. California also moved a cell deeper into the Strong Clinton category on the Spectrum, switching with Massachusetts. Other than that, everything else held steady.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
ME-4
(264)
|
MS-6
(126)
|
TN-11
(56)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
CO-93
(273 | 274)
|
MO-10
(120)
|
AR-6
(45)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
NM-5
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
SC-9
(110)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
MN-10
(193)
|
NC-15
(317 | 236) |
AK-3
(101)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
WI-10
(203)
|
OH-18
(335 | 221)
|
KS-6
(98)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(219)
|
NV-6
(203)
|
UT-6
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
IL-20
(135)
|
VA-13
(232)
|
IA-6
(197)
|
IN-11
(86)
|
OK-7
(24)
|
WA-12
(147)
|
NH-4
(236)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
MT-3
(75)
|
WV-5
(17)
|
CT-17
(154)
|
RI-4
(240)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
KY-8
(72)
|
AL-9
(12)
|
OR-7
(161)
|
PA-20
(260)
|
TX-38
(164)
|
LA-8
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Maine
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Rhode Island
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/28/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/27/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/26/16)
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