New State Polls (10/10/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
9/28-10/2
|
+/- 3.8%
|
660 registered voters
|
30.6
|
36.1
|
9.3
|
+5.5
|
+8.11
| |
North Carolina
|
10/1-10/6
|
+/- 4.5%
|
479 likely voters
|
43
|
42
|
6
|
+1
|
+1.28
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/4-10/5
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 registered voters
|
43
|
35
|
12
|
+8
|
+6.29
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Another batch of pre-second debate polls to start the work week.
Alaska:
Here's another Alaska poll with both major party candidates below 40 percent. The Alaska Survey Research poll is consistent with the handful of Moore polls -- including the most recent one -- released throughout the year in the Last Frontier. The only dissent there is from the series of online surveys from UPI that have shown a wider pro-Trump margin. Regardless, Trump settling anywhere below 40 percent is at least (around) 15 percent behind Romney in Alaska in 2012.
North Carolina:
The North Carolina story remains the same: another day brings another Clinton lead. This is the seventh poll (out the last eight) released since the first debate to find the former Secretary of State ahead. That streak has built a small but durable, one that had briefly sunk below the one point mark before the first debate.
Wisconsin:
Loras has had outliers on their first couple of stops in other midwestern states (Illinois and Iowa) so far this year. This one has that feel as well as compared to the other polls in the Badger state leading up to the second debate. Rather than being a couple of points below the FHQ graduated weighted average in Wisconsin (like some recent polls have been), this one is about two points above that mark. The result is the same: Wisconsin stays about a quarter of point off the Watch List.
--
Only three new polls added in means minimal change. Indeed, Wisconsin flips spots with Michigan on the Spectrum again and that is it. Every thing else -- the map, the rest of the Spectrum and Watch List -- held steady.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
SC-9
(154)
|
MT-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
TX-38
(142)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
MS-6
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
ME-23
(190)
|
OH-18
(334 | 222)
|
IN-11
(98)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
MN-10
(200)
|
NV-6
(340 | 204)
|
KS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
WI-10
(210)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
UT-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
MI-16
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16
(181)
|
TN-11
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
MO-10+13
(165)
|
SD-3
(56)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Maine CD2
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/9/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/8/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/7/16)
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