New State Polls (10/11/16)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pennsylvania
|
10/4-10/9
|
+/- 3.5%
|
764 likely voters
|
44
|
40
|
8
|
+4
|
+5.32
| |
Virginia
|
10/2-10/6
|
+/- 3.4%
|
814 likely voters
|
45
|
36
|
10
|
+9
|
+6.09
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Though there is a new Susquehanna poll out that was in the field after the Friday Trump tape dump and finished up the evening of the second debate in St. Louis, we're still playing the waiting game in terms of how the picture of the race looks in the state-level polling. But if the handful of national polls are any indication, the state polls are likely to move in the direction of Clinton. That news is most relevant in Iowa and Arizona, a couple of Toss Up states tipped toward Trump and could encompass more. Georgia is also right there on the Electoral College Spectrum below where an additional three point swing toward Clinton -- on top of the six point edge the former Secretary of State had before the tape -- could bring it into play.
Pennsylvania:
Regular Keystone state pollster, Susquehanna has not been active there since just after the conventions wrapped up. The nine point Clinton advantage in early August has given way to a four point lead now. And while that Susquehanna survey was consistent with much of the other polling in Pennsylvania after the conventions, that convergence is less clear now. Some post-first debate polls have shown a widening gap there, pushing into the upper single digits. However, others -- namely the recent Quinnipiac poll -- have been around the Lean/Toss Up line around four or five points. As always, it will take more data to determine where things stand, but the one thing that can be said is that even if the margin is somewhat volatile, who is leading is not. Clinton has only trailed in the UPI polls since mid-July. In every other survey, she has been ahead.
Virginia:
With just a handful of exceptions, once Virginia settled in following the convention season bump Clinton got in the polls, it staying in a reliable five to nine point range and has not really moved. Unlike most states -- New Hampshire, too was like this -- the Old Dominion weathered the narrowing phase of this race during the back half of September in the lead up to the first debate. That may yet change, but there is no evidence that it has yet. And that is even more true across the Roanoke series of polls. Since the late September poll the college conducted, there has been a net swing of two points; one point away from Trump and toward Clinton.
--
These two polls were more confirmation of Pennsylvania's and Virginia's positions than anything else: firm leans toward Clinton as of now. Neither changed on the map or budged on the Spectrum, but Virginia did slide off the Watch List (no longer within a point of the Lean to Toss Up line).
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
SC-9
(154)
|
MT-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
TX-38
(142)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
MS-6
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
ME-23
(190)
|
OH-18
(334 | 222)
|
IN-11
(98)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
MN-10
(200)
|
NV-6
(340 | 204)
|
KS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
WI-10
(210)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
UT-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
MI-16
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16
(181)
|
TN-11
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
MO-10+13
(165)
|
SD-3
(56)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Maine CD2
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/10/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/9/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/8/16)
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