Before jumping into the new polls for the day, allow FHQ a moment to make a few technical points now that the calendar has flipped from September to October. First, as promised, the possibility of electoral vote splits in Maine and Nebraska are now accounted for. One can most easily see that in the map above where the districts are being tracked now on the right side above the date. But that change is also reflected in the Electoral College Spectrum below (see particularly footnote #3).
Second, not only are the day's new polls added, but so too are the 50 state surveys from UPI and Ipsos. As the latter are a rolling three week tracking poll, FHQ has made the editorial decision to include just the most recent version. That will be the case until there is no longer any overlap across versions. The inclusion of those series of surveys has shuffled a few states around as the changes table below notes. Alaska, Kansas and Utah shifted into deeper red territory and Mississippi inched just inside the Strong/Lean line on the Lean side. Meanwhile, on the Clinton side of the partisan line, Maine and Oregon continued to huddle around two different lines of demarcation between the categories here at FHQ. Both Maine and Oregon nudged back into the Lean Clinton category but from different directions. Overall, the shake up in the Spectrum -- the underlying order of states -- was pretty minimal.
New State Polls (10/1/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nevada
|
9/27-9/29
|
+/- 3.5%
|
800 likely voters
|
45
|
44
|
5
|
+1
|
+0.29
| |
New Hampshire
|
9/25-9/27
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
43
|
37
|
2
|
+6
|
+5.77
| |
New Jersey
|
9/22-9/28
|
+/- 3.9%
|
638 likely voters
|
46
|
40
|
5
|
+6
|
+11.37
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Three new polls were released on the first Saturday in October.
Nevada:
| Changes (October 1) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
| Kansas | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
| Maine | Toss Up Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Mississippi | Strong Trump | Lean Trump | |
| Oregon | Strong Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Utah | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
New Hampshire:
Let's put it this way about the race in the Granite state: Clinton has not trailed in a poll there since July and that poll was an outlier. While other states have seen the race dance around a bit, New Hampshire has consistently had Clinton ahead in the five to seven point range. This GBA Strategies survey echoes that general dynamic.
New Jersey:
Before the Obama era -- especially during the Bush elections -- New Jersey always seemed to tighten up toward the end of the presidential race. It was never enough to make it competitive, but enough to grab the attention of poll watchers. This Stockton poll feels a little like those 2000 and 2004 days. Still, while Clinton lags behind Obama's 2012 performance in the Garden state, Trump is similarly trailing Romney's pace there. However, it should be noted that this poll has Trump right where Romney ended. But that 40 percent is on the high side of where he has been across the full series of New Jersey surveys.
--
The technical additions triggered a heavier load of changes than normal. Yet, the map and Spectrum remained largely unchanged. There was some more shuffling on and off the Watch List -- around the category lines -- than anything else.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
DE-3
(171)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
SC-9
(154)
|
MT-3
(53)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
OR-7
(178)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
TX-38
(145)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
RI-4
(182)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
MS-6
(107)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(187)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
AK-3
(101)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
MN-10
(197)
|
OH-18
(334 | 222)
|
KS-6
(98)
|
AL-9
(33)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
WI-10
(207)
|
NV-6
(340 | 204)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-53
(24)
|
IL-20
(135)
|
MI-16
(223)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
UT-6
(81)
|
WV-5
(19)
|
NJ-14
(149)
|
NH-4
(227)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(14)
|
WA-12
(161)
|
ME-33
(230)
|
GA-16
(181)
|
SD-3
(67)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(168)
|
VA-13
(243)
|
MO-10+13
(165)
|
TN-11
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Maine
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Mississippi
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Rhode Island
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/30/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/29/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/28/16)
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