New State Polls (10/13/16)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
10/5-10/9
|
+/- 4.9%
|
500 likely voters
|
49
|
43
|
7
|
+6
|
+2.18
| |
Georgia
|
10/11-10/12
|
+/- 2.7%
|
1400 likely voters
|
42
|
48
|
6
|
+6
|
+3.44
| |
Missouri
|
10/9-10/11
|
+/- 2.1%
|
2171 likely voters
|
42
|
47
|
5
|
+5
|
+6.92
| |
Nevada
|
10/10-10/11
|
+/- 3.1%
|
500 likely voters
|
43
|
43
|
8
|
+/-0
|
--
| |
Nevada
|
10/11-10/12
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
45
|
39
|
6
|
+6
|
+0.70
| |
New Hampshire
|
9/29-10/2
|
+/- 4.38%
|
500 likely voters
|
46
|
37
|
6
|
+9
|
+5.28
| |
New Jersey
|
9/6-9/10
|
+/- 3.6%
|
735 registered voters
|
50
|
29
|
7
|
+21
|
+11.64
| |
North Carolina
|
10/10-10/12
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
45
|
43
|
7
|
+2
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
10/10-10/12
|
+/- 3.9%
|
600 likely voters
|
46
|
42
|
5
|
+4
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
10/10-10/12
|
+/- 3.6%
|
743 likely voters
|
45
|
41
|
3
|
+4
|
+1.45
| |
Ohio
|
10/10-10/12
|
+/- 3.9%
|
600 likely voters
|
45
|
43
|
4
|
+2
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/10-10/12
|
+/- 3.6%
|
724 likely voters
|
41
|
42
|
3
|
+1
|
+0.98
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/7-10/11
|
+/- 3.5%
|
806 likely voters
|
48
|
39
|
3
|
+9
|
+5.42
| |
Utah
|
10/10-10/12
|
+/- 4.9%
|
403 likely voters
|
28
|
34
|
6
|
+6
|
+11.03
| |
Virginia
|
10/10-10/12
|
+/- 3.9%
|
600 likely voters
|
46
|
43
|
4
|
+3
|
+5.95
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
With just 26 days left until Election Day, fifteen polls from 11 states were released. Two-thirds of those were polls in the field after both the Trump Tape release and the second presidential debate. And again, like a day ago, the picture is somewhat mixed (particularly in light of what the prevailing expectations were concerning the effect of the tape release specifically). The bottom has neither dropped out for Trump nor has Clinton consistently pulled further ahead in state-level polls. What has been consistent is Clinton's lead. None of the polls added shifted any state from where it was previously.
Florida:
Florida Atlantic University was last in the field in the Sunshine state in late August during a period when both candidates were trading leads in the polls. Then, FAU had Trump ahead by a couple of points. But now, the candidates have traded leads again. Only this time the new poll finds Clinton +6 but in the context of a string of Clinton leads in Florida surveys since the first debate.
Georgia:
The Peach state is one of the states to watch if Trump's fortunes are flagging even a little. A further shift toward Clinton nationally would tend to mean that Georgia would be coming back more into play again, shifting toward the partisan line along with Toss Up Trump states like Arizona and Iowa. This Landmark survey -- the first one there from any firm since the first debate -- shows no evidence that that sort of shift is in the works. It is actually quite the opposite: Since the last Landmark poll in Georgia just after the conventions, Clinton held steady in the low 40s while Trump inched a couple more points closer to 50 percent. Clinton may gain a state or two between now and the election, but it seems like the partisan line will end up somewhere to the Clinton side of Georgia (meaning it is still a Trump state).
Missouri:
The next most Trump state in line after Georgia on the Electoral College Spectrum is Missouri. And for the second consecutive day, there are more data to suggest that the Show-Me state, too, is dug in in the Lean Trump category beyond Clinton's grasp. The race tightened up there following the conventions, but have since settled into more comfortable Trump lead.
Nevada:
One of the trends that separated Nevada from North Carolina and Ohio during the pre-debate Clinton swoon was that Trump had reeled off a series of survey leads in the Silver state. Things were not as consistent in the other two states. Ohio may still be a bit volatile, but now Clinton has had a run of her own in not only North Carolina but Nevada as well. She has not trailed in either since the first debate.
New Hampshire:
There has not been a lot of new data out the Granite state since the first debate. What little there has been broke from the consistent Lean Clinton pattern that had emerged after the convention, establishing a new range that included the same five to nine point Clinton leads but mixed in a handful of narrower results. The latest GQR survey there from the before the Trump tape/second debate fits in the former group. And that keeps New Hampshire right where it has been: in Lean Clinton territory.
New Jersey:
Another older poll -- this one in the Garden state -- does little to change the dynamic there. New Jersey has been camped out on the Strong/Lean line in Clinton's group of states for most of the last few months. The wide margin in the Rutgers poll pushes New Jersey even further into the Strong Clinton category and off the Watch List for the first time in a while.
North Carolina:
No break in the post-first debate streak for Clinton yet. Her lead is small in the Tar Heel state, but the three new polls are causing the average slide further away from the partisan line separating the two candidates' groups of states.
Ohio:
It remains a mixed bag in Ohio. The recent polling has tended to favor Clinton since debate season began, but it has stayed close and Clinton has not consistently led in that time. The two polls released today are in some way a microcosm of that with the end result being that the Buckeye state is just on Clinton's side of the partisan line.
Pennsylvania:
If Trump has to sweep Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania to win, that leaves quite a bit of ground to make up. Nine point deficits in Pennsylvania are not helping, but neither is being behind in the other three states as well.
Utah:
If the race is to 30 percent in Utah, then Trump is in pretty good shape. Good, not great. Monmouth, like Y2 Analytics yesterday, finds both major party candidates below 40 percent and four candidates in double digits. More importantly, both found Evan McMullin above 20 percent, adding a bit of uncertainty to the race in Utah that had not been there since earlier in the year.
Virginia:
FHQ will not make too much of a single Emerson poll in Virginia. Sure, it is tipped toward Clinton and perhaps a bit closer than most of the recent polling of the Old Dominion has been, but the poll does little to change the overall picture other than to pull Virginia back on to the Watch List. Still, Virginia is nearly six points away from the partisan line at the moment. That is not a gap that tends to get made up in the three plus weeks of a normal presidential general election campaign.
--
The sheer number of polls might be expected to bring about a number of changes. They did not. The map and Spectrum stayed exactly the same despite a number of polls in the most competitive states. Only on the Watch List were there any noticeable tweaks. And there, it was a matter of removing New Jersey and adding Ohio and Virginia. Only Ohio is particularly consequential. It moved back under a one point advantage for Clinton and is thus within a point of shifting into Trump's column. But the Buckeye is almost as far away as it can be and continue on the Watch List (Clinton +0.98).
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
SC-9
(154)
|
MT-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
TX-38
(142)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
MS-6
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
ME-23
(190)
|
OH-18
(334 | 222)
|
IN-11
(98)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
MN-10
(200)
|
NV-6
(340 | 204)
|
UT-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
MI-16
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
TN-11
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
MO-10
(164)
|
SD-3
(56)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Maine CD2
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/12/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/11/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/10/16)
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