New State Polls (10/14/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indiana
|
10/11-10/13
|
+/- 4.9%
|
402 likely voters
|
41
|
45
|
5
|
+4
|
+10.12
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/7-10/9
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
48
|
37
|
15
|
+11
|
--
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/7-10/11
|
+/- 4.87%
|
517 likely voters
|
45
|
39
|
4
|
+6
|
--
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/10-10/12
|
+/- 4.4%
|
501 likely voters
|
41
|
38
|
4
|
+3
|
+5.46
| |
Oregon
|
10/10-10/12
|
+/- 3.9%
|
654 likely voters
|
48
|
38
|
5
|
+10
|
+9.90
| |
Texas
|
10/10-10/12
|
+/- 4.0%
|
638 likely voters
|
43
|
47
|
5
|
+4
|
+8.12
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
The work week ended with another handful of polls, most of which were in the field after the Trump tape and the second debate. The picture continued to be one of further Clinton advantage, but this time into some red states.
Indiana:
Like Alaska and Utah, Indiana has tightened up some over that week or so. What had been stronger Trump leads have contracted to a point that would place them along the Lean/Toss Up line depending on the poll. What makes them all safer through the FHQ lens is the combination of 1) like a lot of the states outside the toss ups on the Trump side of the partisan line, most red states have been universally underpolled and 2) a handful of online panels that offer only a binary choice rather than the multiple options that are on the ballot in most cases. In the FHQ averages that gives more weight to some of these head-to-head-only polls where Trump's margin is considerably larger. Still, even if one removes those polls, Trump's lead is over eight points in Indiana. The polls are closer across these states, but the electoral votes remain in Trump's column.
New Hampshire:
One could dig into the numbers in these three polls, but the simple fact remains that while they are a bit more volatile than some of the polling in New Hampshire has been (in the lead up to the first debate), together they tell the tale in the Granite state. Split the difference. The middle path would have Clinton at roughly 45 percent and Trump at 39 percent. However, FHQ would urge at least some caution on that conclusion. The direction is likely right -- Clinton is ahead -- but the extent may be overstated due to that PPP survey. It was in the field smack in the middle of the Trump tapes and the second debate. Additionally, it is a head-to-head as opposed to a multi-way poll. Those types of polls have tended to inflate Clinton's standing in the Lean Clinton states in particular.
Oregon:
It is perhaps notable relative to 2008 and 2012 that Clinton has less than 50 percent support in the Beaver state, but that means less in light of the fact that Oregon has since the conventions consistently been right around the Strong/Lean line in Clinton's group of states. The new Survey USA poll further solidifies that positioning.
Texas:
See Indiana. Texas has been a state that has favored Trump by seven to nine points all year. It stands to reason, then, that if there is a several points national shift toward Clinton that that phenomenon would stretch to Texas as well. Seven to nine points becomes 4-6 points in that scenario. Trump just happens to be on the low end of that range at the moment in this Survey USA poll. But even if Texas is at Trump +6 that means that the race is close in states that would push Clinton's electoral vote total to around 350. And that is a large cushion to have with 25 days to go.
--
With just a few new polls, there was not a lot of movement. Pennsylvania and New Hampshire swapped spots on the Spectrum as did Indiana and Mississippi. The former is more consequential in the chase for electoral votes than the latter, but decreasingly so. The map remained the same as a day ago but the Watch List added Indiana along the Strong/Lean Trump line.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
SC-9
(154)
|
MT-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
TX-38
(142)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
ME-23
(190)
|
OH-18
(334 | 222)
|
MS-6
(93)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
MN-10
(200)
|
NV-6
(340 | 204)
|
UT-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
MI-16
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
TN-11
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
NH-4
(243)
|
MO-10
(164)
|
SD-3
(56)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Maine CD2
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/13/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/12/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/11/16)
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