New State Polls (10/15/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
10/11-10/12
|
+/- 4.12%
|
550 likely voters
|
43
|
42
|
6
|
+1
|
+1.63
| |
Florida
|
10/12-10/13
|
+/- 3.1%
|
985 likely voters
|
46
|
42
|
6
|
+4
|
+2.23
| |
Nevada
|
10/10-10/13
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
43
|
41
|
9
|
+2
|
+0.76
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Saturday brought a few polls from what has become the narrowed group of battleground states for 2016. In all three cases -- Arizona, Florida and Nevada -- Clinton is ahead. The simple take home from that is that Clinton is ahead there, then Trump has a very narrow path to 270. Actually, if all four fall in the Clinton column, then Trump has no path.
Why?
It has a lot to do with the order of states established throughout 2016 (as a carry over from 2012). States can move around -- see Utah -- but for the most part, they stray very little from the order of states that has tended to emerge from the last few elections in what might be called the polarized era.
Arizona:
Any wide margins in Arizona polls have favored Trump, but on the whole, the majority of polls in the Grand Canyon state have been quite narrow all year. Clinton has trailed in just one poll in Arizona in the time since the first debate (and that was a head-to-head internet-based panel survey). There is little data in that period, but it has all point toward Clinton by a small margin. That has cut into Trump's lead there, pulling Arizona back toward the Watch List if not the partisan line (to shift back to Clinton).
Florida:
This is the second PPP survey since the first debate and the picture across the firm's surveys in the Sunshine state is a steady one. The two point swing saw Clinton gain a point and Trump lose one. But the conclusion remains the same: Clinton is ahead. Yes, it is a small lead, but it is a consistent one. Since the first debate, Clinton has only trailed in a couple of polls; a UPI online panel and an Emerson poll. That is not intended as a slight at either. Rather, the evidence gathered in the time since the first debate is clear. Clinton leads.
Nevada:
Nevada fits squarely between Arizona and Florida. The polling there also shifted toward Clinton after that first debate, but the margin was more favorable in Nevada than in Arizona. What has developed, built on polls like this latest one from JMC Analytics is a small but seemingly durable lead. Clinton has not been behind Trump since late September.
--
The bottom line is that if these are the battlegrounds, then Trump is fighting from a position of weakness. All of these polls were affirming polls, upholding the state of the race in each of the three states represented. That meant that everything -- the map, Spectrum and Watch List -- all held steady as compared to yesterday.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
SC-9
(154)
|
MT-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
TX-38
(142)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
ME-23
(190)
|
OH-18
(334 | 222)
|
MS-6
(93)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
MN-10
(200)
|
NV-6
(340 | 204)
|
UT-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
MI-16
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
TN-11
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
NH-4
(243)
|
MO-10
(164)
|
SD-3
(56)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Maine CD2
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/14/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/13/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/12/16)
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