New State Polls (10/16/16)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
10/12-10/13
|
+/- 2.8%
|
1226 registered voters
|
44
|
39
|
9
|
+5
|
+3.92
| |
Florida
|
10/11-10/13
|
+/- 2.3%
|
1799 registered voters
|
46
|
42
|
9
|
+4
|
+2.27
| |
Montana
|
10/10-10/12
|
+/- 3.2%
|
1003 likely voters
|
36
|
46
|
6
|
+10
|
+13.63
| |
Nevada
|
10/12-10/14
|
+/- 4.5%
|
996 likely voters
|
46
|
40
|
4
|
+6
|
+0.99
| |
Utah
|
10/12-10/14
|
+/- 5.7%
|
951 likely voters
|
20
|
37
|
11
|
+17
|
+11.54
| |
Virginia
|
10/11-10/14
|
+/- 3.6%
|
809 likely voters
|
44
|
29
|
5
|
+15
|
+6.33
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
With 23 days until Election Day, Sundays stopped being lazy polling days. There were six new polls in six states. Each of the four blue state polls increased Clinton's advantage while the two red state polls brought mixed results for Republican nominee, Donald Trump.
Colorado:
The only utility in the Gravis survey of registered voters in Colorado was that it created a more seamless trendline to be drawn between this poll and the last two polls of registered voters the firm conducted there before and after the first debate. A four point Trump lead in the pre-(first)debate Gravis poll has become a five point margin for Clinton now. And who knows what the picture would look like if Gravis was using a likely voter screen. If other post-(first)debate polls of likely voters are any indication, Clinton's lead would be larger.
Florida:
In the Sunshine state, Gravis conducted another survey of registered voters. And this one mirrors the PPP survey (of likely voters) released late Friday. Clinton maintained a four point edge in both while pushing into the upper 40s. The data since the first debate have been decidedly in Clinton's direction, and that continues here, nudging the average margin there up just a little bit further out of Trump's reach.
Montana:
What can be said about the rare Montana poll from Mason-Dixon? Trump is comfortably ahead, but is under 50 percent in a state where Mitt Romney managed over 55 percent of the vote in 2012. That Trump lags Romney means less in light of the fact that he retains a double digit advantage in the Treasure state.
Nevada:
Clinton still has yet to trail in a Silver state survey in the field after the first debate. Of those nine post-(first)debate polls in Nevada one-third of them have had Clinton up by six points including this latest poll there from YouGov. Clinton's edge there is growing as the polling in Nevada begins to look more like that in Florida and North Carolina. All three have witnessed a steady stream of Clinton-favorable surveys. Only Ohio has had a less steady picture among the toss up states where Clinton is ahead.
Utah:
Utah is making a good case to be the most volatile state between now and Election Day. This is a state where a Republican should win handily, yet Trump has consistently polled under 40 percent. Clinton has not really taken advantage of that, languishing more often than not in the 20s. Her results have been consistent there (not to mention in range of Obama's 25 percent there in 2012). Trump's position has been far more volatile and the trajectory of independent candidate, Evan McMullin, continues to track upward. This one is not necessarily close between Trump and Clinton, but there are a number of variables at play in Utah that could make it difficult for Trump to claim the Beehive state's six electoral votes.
Virginia:
The new Christopher Newport survey of the Old Dominion is bleak for Trump as it has what was a little more than a third of the support in the school's last poll slipping under 30 percent now. If that is the outlook in Virginia, it is not any wonder that the campaign diverted resources from there to North Carolina this last week.
--
These polls triggered a few minor shifts in the graphics today. Montana jumped a couple of spots closer to the partisan line on the Spectrum but remains out of reach to Clinton in the Strong Trump area. More meaningfully, there was a slight shake up among the battleground states for the first time in a long while. Nevada and Ohio swapped places on the Spectrum, but both are now tipped approximately one point in Clinton's direction. By one one-hundredth of a point, Ohio is now the closest of the Clinton states. The Watch List lost Virginia on the weighted of the sizable margin in the CNU poll. The map as well as the electoral vote distribution stayed as they were a day ago.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
SC-9
(154)
|
SD-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
TX-38
(142)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
ME-23
(190)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
MS-6
(93)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
MN-10
(200)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
UT-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
MI-16
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
MT-3
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
NH-4
(243)
|
MO-10
(164)
|
TN-11
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Maine CD2
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/15/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/14/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/13/16)
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