The Electoral College Map (10/18/16)

New State Polls (10/18/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1028 likely voters	41	44	2	+3	+1.51
California	Survey USA	10/13-10/15	+/- 3.7%	725 likely voters	56	30	7	+26	+22.18
Colorado	Magellan	10/12-10/13	+/- 4.38%	500 likely voters	40	35	6	+5	--
Colorado	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	956 likely voters	44	37	3	+7	+4.29
Florida	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1702 likely voters	43	45	3	+2	+2.21
Georgia	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	886 likely voters	45	41	3	+4	+3.05
Indiana	Lucid/Times-Picayune	10/7-10/10	--	1123 likely voters	37	43	7	+6	+9.601
Iowa	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1135 likely voters	40	45	4	+5	+1.30
Massachusetts	MassINC/WBUR	10/13-10/15	+/- 4.4%	502 likely voters	54	28	6	+26	+22.09
Michigan	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1331 likely voters	45	37	3	+8	+6.62
Nevada	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	884 likely voters	40	44	2	+4	--
Nevada	Monmouth	10/14-10/17	+/-4.8%	413 likely voters	47	40	3	+7	+1.07
New Hampshire	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	569 likely voters	47	36	2	+11	+5.69
New Jersey	Fairleigh Dickinson	10/12-10/16	+/-4.3%	579 likely voters	49	35	5	+14	+11.88
New Mexico	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	889 likely voters	41	33	2	+8	+7.82
North Carolina	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1191 likely voters	46	40	3	+6	+1.56
Ohio	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1307 likely voters	41	44	2	+3	+0.71
Oregon	DHM Research/OPB	10/6-10/13	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	43	36	7	+7	+9.62
Pennsylvania	Lucid/Times-Picayune	10/7-10/10	--	1457 likely voters	47	38	7	+9	--
Pennsylvania	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1449 likely voters	46	40	3	+6	+5.55
Texas	University of Houston	10/7-10/15	+/- 3.0%	1000 likely voters	38	41	13	+3	--
Texas	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1332 likely voters	42	44	3	+2	+7.11
Virginia	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1644 likely voters	49	38	2	+11	+6.51
Wisconsin	Survey Monkey/Washington Post	10/8-10/16	--	1076 likely voters	43	38	3	+5	--
Wisconsin	St. Norbert	10/13-10/16	+/-3.8%	664 likely voters	47	39	7	+8	+6.35
1The Picayune poll in Indiana pushes the Hoosier state from the Strong Trump to Lean Trump category.

--
Changes (10/18/16)

Changes (October 18)
State	Before	After
Indiana	Strong Trump	Lean Trump

Despite all the new polling data, little changed here at FHQ. Indiana went from barely a Strong Trump state to barely a Lean Trump state. It remains on the line between the two categories based on the new data from the Picayune survey. The Hoosier state maintained its same position on the Electoral College Spectrum, but changed shades both there and on the map. That obviously changes Indiana's distinction on the Watch List. Other than that, the only other changes were Texas hopping South Carolina and Alaska in the Lean Trump area of the Spectrum toward the Toss Up category and Virginia and Wisconsin swapping spots on the Spectrum in Lean Clinton territory.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	WA-12 (162)	PA-20 (263)	TX-38 (154)	SD-3 (53)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	AK-3 (116)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	SC-9 (113)	ND-3 (44)
CA-55 (75)	NM-5 (188)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	IN-11 (104)	KY-8 (41)
MA-11 (86)	ME-23 (190)	NV-6 (322 | 222)	MS-6 (93)	NE-53 (33)
NY-29+13 (116)	MN-10 (200)	OH-18 (340 | 216)	UT-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20 (136)	MI-16 (216)	IA-6 (198)	KS-6 (81)	OK-7 (19)
DE-3 (139)	VA-13 (229)	AZ-11 (192)	LA-8 (75)	ID-4 (12)
CT-7 (146)	WI-10 (239)	GA-16+13 (181)	MT-3 (67)	WV-5 (8)
RI-4 (150)	NH-4 (243)	MO-10 (164)	TN-11 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Colorado	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Maine CD2	from Toss Up Trump	to Lean Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/17/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/16/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/15/16)

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