New State Polls (10/18/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
1028 likely voters
|
41
|
44
|
2
|
+3
|
+1.51
| |
California
|
10/13-10/15
|
+/- 3.7%
|
725 likely voters
|
56
|
30
|
7
|
+26
|
+22.18
| |
Colorado
|
10/12-10/13
|
+/- 4.38%
|
500 likely voters
|
40
|
35
|
6
|
+5
|
--
| |
Colorado
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
956 likely voters
|
44
|
37
|
3
|
+7
|
+4.29
| |
Florida
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
1702 likely voters
|
43
|
45
|
3
|
+2
|
+2.21
| |
Georgia
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
886 likely voters
|
45
|
41
|
3
|
+4
|
+3.05
| |
Indiana
|
10/7-10/10
|
--
|
1123 likely voters
|
37
|
43
|
7
|
+6
|
+9.601
| |
Iowa
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
1135 likely voters
|
40
|
45
|
4
|
+5
|
+1.30
| |
Massachusetts
|
10/13-10/15
|
+/- 4.4%
|
502 likely voters
|
54
|
28
|
6
|
+26
|
+22.09
| |
Michigan
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
1331 likely voters
|
45
|
37
|
3
|
+8
|
+6.62
| |
Nevada
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
884 likely voters
|
40
|
44
|
2
|
+4
|
--
| |
Nevada
|
10/14-10/17
|
+/-4.8%
|
413 likely voters
|
47
|
40
|
3
|
+7
|
+1.07
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
569 likely voters
|
47
|
36
|
2
|
+11
|
+5.69
| |
New Jersey
|
10/12-10/16
|
+/-4.3%
|
579 likely voters
|
49
|
35
|
5
|
+14
|
+11.88
| |
New Mexico
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
889 likely voters
|
41
|
33
|
2
|
+8
|
+7.82
| |
North Carolina
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
1191 likely voters
|
46
|
40
|
3
|
+6
|
+1.56
| |
Ohio
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
1307 likely voters
|
41
|
44
|
2
|
+3
|
+0.71
| |
Oregon
|
10/6-10/13
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
43
|
36
|
7
|
+7
|
+9.62
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/7-10/10
|
--
|
1457 likely voters
|
47
|
38
|
7
|
+9
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
1449 likely voters
|
46
|
40
|
3
|
+6
|
+5.55
| |
Texas
|
10/7-10/15
|
+/- 3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
38
|
41
|
13
|
+3
|
--
| |
Texas
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
1332 likely voters
|
42
|
44
|
3
|
+2
|
+7.11
| |
Virginia
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
1644 likely voters
|
49
|
38
|
2
|
+11
|
+6.51
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/8-10/16
|
--
|
1076 likely voters
|
43
|
38
|
3
|
+5
|
--
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/13-10/16
|
+/-3.8%
|
664 likely voters
|
47
|
39
|
7
|
+8
|
+6.35
| |
1The Picayune poll in Indiana pushes the Hoosier state from the Strong Trump to Lean Trump category.
| |||||||||
--
Changes (10/18/16)
| Changes (October 18) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | Strong Trump | Lean Trump | |
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
TX-38
(154)
|
SD-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(116)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
SC-9
(113)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
ME-23
(190)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
MS-6
(93)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
MN-10
(200)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
UT-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
MI-16
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
VA-13
(229)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
WI-10
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
MT-3
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
NH-4
(243)
|
MO-10
(164)
|
TN-11
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Maine CD2
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/17/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/16/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/15/16)
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