New State Polls (10/19/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
10/10-10/15
|
+/-3.7%
|
713 likely voters
|
43
|
38
|
8
|
+5
|
+1.19
| |
Kansas
|
10/11-10/15
|
+/-4.1%
|
581 likely voters
|
36
|
47
|
7
|
+11
|
+11.72
| |
Missouri
|
10/17-10/19
|
+/-3.9%
|
600 likely voters
|
39
|
47
|
7
|
+8
|
+6.991
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/11-10/17
|
+/-3.5%
|
770 likely voters
|
49
|
34
|
3
|
+15
|
--
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/17-10/19
|
+/-3.2%
|
900 likely voters
|
44
|
36
|
5
|
+8
|
+6.13
| |
New York
|
10/13-10/17
|
+/- 4.6%
|
611 likely voters
|
54
|
30
|
6
|
+24
|
+20.01
| |
North Carolina
|
10/14-10/17
|
+/-3.7%
|
723 registered voters
|
46
|
44
|
4
|
+2
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
10/14-10/17
|
+/-4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
44
|
42
|
6
|
+2
|
+1.59
| |
Oregon
|
10/4-10/14
|
+/- 3.97%
|
608 likely voters
|
46
|
36
|
4
|
+10
|
+9.66
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/17-10/19
|
+/-3.4%
|
800 likely voters
|
45
|
41
|
6
|
+4
|
+5.51
| |
Utah
|
10/17-10/19
|
+/-3.6%
|
700 likely voters
|
24
|
27
|
12
|
+3
|
+10.211
| |
Vermont
|
9/29-10/14
|
+/- 3.9%
|
650 likely voters
|
45
|
17
|
14
|
+28
|
+24.00
| |
Virginia
|
10/12-10/15
|
+/-4.1%
|
500 likely voters
|
47
|
38
|
9
|
+9
|
+6.61
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/15-10/18
|
+/-4.9%
|
403 likely voters
|
47
|
40
|
5
|
+7
|
--
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/18-10/19
|
+/-3.5
|
804 likely voters
|
50
|
38
|
12
|
+12
|
+6.66
| |
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.44 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah from the Strong Trump category to the Lean Trump category. McMullin leads in the Emerson poll with 31% support.
| |||||||||
--
Changes (10/19/16)
Another day with confirming data rather anything that shook up the picture in any way. Most of the action was on the Electoral College Spectrum. Wisconsin jumped Virginia and Michigan. Those three and Minnesota are tightly bunched within 0.10 points of each other. Importantly, Iowa and Arizona swap positions on the Spectrum, bringing the Grand Canyon state up against the partisan line as the closest state on Trump's side. Utah and Mississippi switch as well (although there are plenty of caveats with McMullin rising in the Beehive state and some of the online head-to-head surveys included).
New Hampshire after a second survey showing the race in the double digit range for Clinton slides off the Watch List. Meanwhile, the List adds Utah along the Strong/Lean Trump line.
The map remained unchanged as did the distribution of electoral college votes.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
TX-38
(154)
|
SD-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(116)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
SC-9
(113)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
ME-23
(190)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
UT-6
(93)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
MN-10
(200)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
WI-10
(210)
|
AZ-11
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
MI-16
(226)
|
IA-6
(187)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
MT-3
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
NH-4
(243)
|
MO-10
(164)
|
TN-11
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Maine CD2
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/18/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/17/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/16/16)
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