The Electoral College Map (10/21/16)

New State Polls (10/21/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Florida	Cherry Communication/Florida Chamber of Commerce	10/16-10/19	+/-4.4%	507 likely voters	46	42	5	+4	--
Florida	Opinion Savvy	10/20	+/-4.2%	538 likely voters	49	45	2	+4	+2.29
Georgia	Abt SRBI/AJC	10/17-10/20	+/- 4.26%	839 likely voters	42	44	5	+2	--
Georgia	Landmark	10/20	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	43	47	5	+4	--
Georgia	Opinion Savvy	10/20	+/- 4.1%	570 likely voters	46	50	1	+4	+3.10
Indiana	Hoosier Survey/Ball State	10/10-10/16	+/- 4.8%	544 likely voters	37	43	9	+6	+9.22
Louisiana	Mason-Dixon	10/17-10/19	+/- 4.0%	625 likely voters	34	54	9	+20	+13.50
Maine	Maine People's Resource Center	10/14-10/15	+/- 3.3%	890 likely voters	42	36	9	+6	+6.78
Maine CD1	Maine People's Resource Center	10/14-10/15	+/- 4.5%	469 likely voters	46	36	7	+10	+17.08
Maine CD2	Maine People's Resource Center	10/14-10/15	+/- 4.8%	420 likely voters	38	37	11	+1	+3.83
Utah	Dan Jones & Associates	10/12-10/18	+/- 3.97%	818 likely voters	25	30	4	+5	+9.861
Virginia	Christopher Newport	10/16-10/19	+/- 3.9%	834 likely voters	45	33	5	+12	+6.81
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.25 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 29% support in the Dan Jones survey.

--
Changes (10/21/16)

Changes (October 21)
State	Before	After
Utah	Strong Trump	Lean Trump

The work week closed with a late week rush of polls mostly in the field before Wednesday night's final debate. Only the series of Georgia polls were in the field either overlapping with or completely after the debate.

After turning back toward Trump in late September, Georgia has changed trajectories again. Though Georgia has been in the Toss Up Trump area throughout the post-convention period, the margin had been increasing. Now the margin is narrowing, but still within the Trump group of states. Maine's second congressional district has followed a similar track. But both hold their positions.

Utah did not. Another narrow multi-way poll decreases Trump's lead over Clinton even more. And Evan McMullin has become a factor in the Beehive state. This is the third consecutive poll where the independent candidate has received between a quarter and a third of the support.

Utah, then, moves into the Lean Trump category (with some caveats) and flips on the Watch List. The List also loses the second congressional district in Maine.

Despite the change, Utah holds steady on the Electoral College Spectrum. The Lean Trump states are few in number but also spread apart from each other; a departure from some of the states in the Lean Clinton category on the other side of the partisan line. That group includes Virginia which was the biggest mover on the Spectrum. The Old Dominion jumped Wisconsin, Minnesota and Maine, but remains in a cluster with those three states and Michigan in the upper six point range for Clinton.

The map saw Utah turn a lighter shade of red while the distribution of electoral college votes remained 340-198.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	WA-12 (162)	PA-20 (263)	TX-38 (154)	SD-3 (53)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	AK-3 (116)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	SC-9 (113)	ND-3 (44)
CA-55 (75)	NM-5 (188)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	IN-11 (104)	KY-8 (41)
MA-11 (86)	MI-16 (204)	NV-6 (322 | 222)	UT-6 (93)	NE-53 (33)
NY-29+13 (116)	VA-13 (217)	OH-18 (340 | 216)	MS-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20 (136)	ME-23 (219)	AZ-11 (198)	KS-6 (81)	OK-7 (19)
DE-3 (139)	MN-10 (229)	IA-6 (187)	LA-8 (75)	ID-4 (12)
CT-7 (146)	WI-10 (239)	GA-16+13 (181)	MT-3 (67)	WV-5 (8)
RI-4 (150)	NH-4 (243)	MO-10 (164)	TN-11 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Colorado	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/20/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/19/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/18/16)

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