New State Polls (10/2/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Illinois
|
9/21-9/24
|
+/- 2.83%
|
1200 likely voters
|
48.6
|
35.1
|
11.3
|
+13.4
|
+15.20
| |
New Mexico
|
9/27-9/29
|
+/- 4.4%
|
501 likely voters
|
35
|
31
|
6
|
+4
|
+6.55
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
There were just a couple of polls added to the mix today on an otherwise slow post-debate Sunday.
Illinois:
The first of those two polls is out of Illinois. But it is not a post-debate poll. The Victory Research survey was in the field toward the tail end of the week prior to last Monday's first presidential debate. On the one hand, Clinton maintains a comfortable lead in what has been a Strong Democratic state for a generation. But on the other, the former Secretary of State is under the 50 percent mark for the fourth out of the last six polls conducted in the Land of Lincoln (since August). That would, perhaps, look worse if Trump was consistently at or above the 40 percent threshold instead of mostly stuck in the 30s.
New Mexico:
In the Land of Enchantment, the story is the number that does not make the table above. Clinton and Trump are in the low to mid-30s, but Gary Johnson is siphoning off nearly a quarter of support in the survey. Polling has been sporadic in the former New Mexico governor's home state, but what little is there has seen Johnson creep from the upper teens into the lower 20s in a couple of recent surveys (the other being the Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll). With Johnson included, Clinton has generally been around but just below 40 percent with Trump tending to trail in the lower 30s. One thing is for sure, Johnson's presence makes it close in New Mexico.
--
Neither poll shifted either state in any meaningful way here at FHQ. New Mexico flips spots with Minnesota, but that was the extent of the changes across the several figures.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
DE-3
(171)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
SC-9
(154)
|
MT-3
(53)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
OR-7
(178)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
TX-38
(145)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
RI-4
(182)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
MS-6
(107)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
MN-10
(192)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
AK-3
(101)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
OH-18
(334 | 222)
|
KS-6
(98)
|
AL-9
(33)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
WI-10
(207)
|
NV-6
(340 | 204)
|
IN-11
(92)
|
NE-53
(24)
|
IL-20
(135)
|
MI-16
(223)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
UT-6
(81)
|
WV-5
(19)
|
NJ-14
(149)
|
NH-4
(227)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(14)
|
WA-12
(161)
|
ME-33
(230)
|
GA-16
(181)
|
SD-3
(67)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(168)
|
VA-13
(243)
|
MO-10+13
(165)
|
TN-11
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Maine
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Michigan
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Mississippi
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Rhode Island
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/1/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/30/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/29/16)
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