The Electoral College Map (10/3/16)

New State Polls (10/3/16)1
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	Keating Research	9/27-9/29	+/- 4.0%	602 likely voters	44	33	6	+11	--
Colorado	Monmouth	9/29-10/2	+/- 4.9%	400 likely voters	49	38	3	+11	+4.24
Delaware	University of Delaware	9/16-9/28	+/- 4.1%	762 likely voters	51	30	9	+11	+13.60
Florida	Quinnipiac	9/27-10/2	+/- 4.2%	545 likely voters	46	41	5	+5	+2.13
North Carolina	Quinnipiac	9/27-10/2	+/- 4.4%	507 likely voters	46	43	3	+3	--
North Carolina	Selzer/Bloomberg	9/29-10/2	+/- 3.5%	805 likely voters	46	45	5	+1	+1.14
Ohio	Quinnipiac	9/27-10/2	+/- 4.4%	497 likely voters	42	47	4	+5	+0.46
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac	9/27-10/2	+/- 4.2%	535 likely voters	45	41	6	+4	+4.86
Virginia	Christopher Newport University	9/27-9/30	+/- 3.7%	892 likely voters	42	35	3	+7	+5.73
1Includes latest wave (9/9-9/29) of Ipsos/Reuters polls from the majority of states.

Polling Quick Hits:
The new work week began with nine new surveys from seven states and another wave of the Ipsos/Reuters States of the Nation polls.

Colorado:

Changes (October 3)
State	Before	After
Oregon	Lean Clinton	Strong Clinton

Two eleven point leads will tend to catch one's eye any time they pop up among a series of data in a state that had seen its lead contract in recent days. The polling has fluctuated wildly in Colorado, but the bottom line remains the same: Who is above 40 percent. At the moment Clinton is more consistently above that level. That is certainly true in the Monmouth and Keating polls released today.


Delaware:
Delaware has been lightly polled this cycle -- it always is -- and while Clinton leads, she is overall well behind Obama's 2012 mark in the First state. To be clear, Trump lags Romney from four years ago as well, but by about half as much a Clinton relative to Obama. However, this latest poll from the University of Delaware finds a margin similar to that of the final result in the state in 2012. In other words, Delaware is still a blue state.


Florida:
As strange as it is to see it, Quinnipiac, at this point in the race, finds Clinton up five points in Florida and Trump five points ahead in Ohio. Now, there are certainly some unique (to 2016) demographic reasons why that it is, but it is something to see Florida on the Democratic side of Ohio on the Electoral College Spectrum below. That order has tended to be in reverse -- Ohio to the Democratic side of Florida -- during the Obama era and even stretching back to 2004. But both quadrennial battleground states have consistently fallen in this order since before the conventions.

What is noteworthy about the Florida polling during the back half of September is that both candidates have risen into the 40s, but Clinton has more consistently pushed into the mid-40s with Trump just behind in the low to mid-40s. The Q-poll fits that trend.


North Carolina:
Two polls in North Carolina and two narrow Clinton leads. Like Florida, both candidates have clearly established footholds in the 40s; the mark, perhaps, of the most highly contested states (where third party support is flagging to some extent). The race in the Tar Heel state is close, but the trading of narrow leads there has been displaced with a run of Clinton leads in polls in the field after the first debate a week ago. She already held a very small lead there, but this has solidified it.


Ohio:
This is the one spot of red in an otherwise blue day of poll releases. Whereas Florida saw a tied last Quinnipiac survey give way to a five point Clinton advantage now, the Ohio trendline across Q-polls has moved in the opposite direction. A modest Trump edge in the Buckeye state earlier in the month has become a slightly wider lead now. But that shift occurred in the midst of a continued volatile series of surveys in the state. Ohio remains on the Clinton side of the partisan line here at FHQ, but by less than half a point. Only Nevada is closer.


Pennsylvania:
FHQ could dig into the Q-poll from Pennsylvania, but the story is really the same as it has been there: Clinton is ahead and by a margin that continues to hover around the Lean/Toss Up line.

...which is where the last Quinnipiac poll was (and a great many others have been of late).


Virginia:
Finally, in the Old Dominion, yet another survey -- this one from Christopher Newport -- sees Clinton ahead by six to eight points. That has been the established range there both before and after the first debate. Both candidates gained over their positions in the school's poll from last week, but the story is still the same there.


--
The addition of these nine polls plus the Ipsos data did little to fundamentally alter the outlook here at FHQ. The electoral count remains unchanged and only Oregon change categories, pushing to the strong side of the Strong/Lean line. There were some subtle moves on the Electoral College Spectrum, but outside of Delaware and New Jersey, nothing was more than a cell or two in one direction or the other. The Watch List was more active. Notably, Iowa came back on while Maine dropped off. Both shifted in Clinton's direction.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (172)	PA-20 (263)	SC-9 (154)	MT-3 (53)
MD-10 (17)	OR-7 (179)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	TX-38 (145)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	RI-4 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	MS-6 (107)	ND-3 (44)
CA-55 (75)	MN-10 (193)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	AK-3 (101)	NE-53 (41)
MA-11 (86)	ME-23 (195)	OH-18 (334 | 222)	KS-6 (98)	KY-8 (36)
NY-29+13 (116)	NM-5 (200)	NV-6 (340 | 204)	IN-11 (92)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20 (136)	WI-10 (210)	IA-6 (198)	UT-6 (81)	WV-5 (19)
DE-3 (139)	MI-16 (226)	AZ-11 (192)	LA-8 (75)	OK-7 (14)
CT-7 (146)	VA-13 (239)	GA-16 (181)	SD-3 (67)	ID-4 (7)
WA-12 (158)	NH-4 (243)	MO-10+13 (165)	TN-11 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Colorado	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Michigan	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Rhode Island	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/2/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/1/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/30/16)

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