New State Polls (10/7/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Massachusetts
|
9/24-10/3
|
+/- 5.0%
|
403 likely voters
|
58
|
26
|
5
|
+32
|
+21.56
| |
Ohio
|
10/5-10/6
|
+/- 3.5%
|
782 likely voters
|
44
|
43
|
6
|
+1
|
+0.58
| |
Washington
|
9/29-10/3
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
47
|
31
|
6
|
+16
|
+11.73
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Most pollsters got their pre-second debate baselines in yesterday. There were, however, a few more survey releases to trickle in late yesterday and early today.
...and there was the promise of a new Iowa poll from Selzer/The Des Moines Register tomorrow.
Massachusetts:
This new Bay state survey from WNEU looks in some ways like the Maryland poll from the Washington Post a day ago. Clinton comes in around where Obama ended up in November 2012. But Trump underperforms Romney by about ten points in the state Romney once governed. The bottom line is the same as in Maryland, though: it is a blue state.
Ohio:
In Ohio, there have now been three consecutive polls this week with Clinton narrowly ahead and lodged at 44 percent (in the four way race). But the PPP survey is a bit of a tightening since the last (late August) poll in the state from the firm. Basically, the trendline is being drawn through a continued volatile series of polls. The range is really what has decreased. But the leads continue to change hands.
Washington:
Clinton has not trailed in a poll in Washington all year, but the margins there have been smaller than in past cycles. That has not been enough to entice pollsters into the state to conduct more polls. But of the infrequent polling in the Evergreen state during 2016, this Strategies 360 survey is the best Clinton has gotten there. Sure, the former Secretary of State is under 50 percent there, but that is less injurious to her campaign when her opponent is mired in the low 30s.
--
Everything held steady on the weight of just three more polls. None of the group of Massachusetts, Ohio nor Washington shifted any on the map or Spectrum and the Watch List remained unchanged.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
SC-9
(154)
|
MT-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
TX-38
(145)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
AK-3
(107)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
MS-6
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
ME-23
(190)
|
OH-18
(334 | 222)
|
IN-11
(98)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
MN-10
(200)
|
NV-6
(340 | 204)
|
KS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
MI-16
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
UT-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16
(181)
|
TN-11
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
NH-4
(243)
|
MO-10+13
(165)
|
SD-3
(56)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Maine CD2
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/6/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/5/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/4/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
No comments:
Post a Comment