The Electoral College Map (10/8/16)

New State Polls (10/8/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Alaska	Moore	9/13-9/15	+/- 4.0%	500 likely voters	31	39	16	+8	--
Alaska	Moore	10/5-10/6	+/- 4.0%	500 likely voters	34	37	18	+3	+8.60
Colorado	Gravis	10/3-10/4	+/- 2.8%	1246 registered voters	40	40	6	+/-0	+3.86
Florida	Gravis	10/4	+/- 3.4%	821 registered voters	47	45	5	+2	+2.04
Ohio	TargetSmart	10/3-10/5	--	812 likely voters	43	40	2	+3	+0.66
Oregon	Gravis	10/4	+/- 2.8%	1248 registered voters	47	39	8	+8	+9.88
Virginia	Hampton University	9/28-10/2	+/- 4.37%	801 registered voters	46	31	20	+15	+5.95
Wisconsin	Gravis	10/4	+/- 3.0%	1102 registered voters	48	40	8	+8	+6.33

Polling Quick Hits:
The work week ended with a bit of a bang before the weekend (second) presidential debate. Of course, it will take some time for the Trump tape to work its way into the public consciousness -- although that seems to have moved rapidly thus far -- much less the polls and poll-based projection models. Needless to say, this group of polls was in the field before Friday, so there are no effects to be found yet. Today is more about setting the pre-debate baseline.


Alaska:

Changes (October 8)
State	Before	After
Alaska	Strong Trump	Lean Trump
Oregon	Strong Clinton	Lean Clinton

There are a couple of things to be said about small number of polls conducted in the Last Frontier this year. First, more often than not, both candidates have found themselves stuck in the 30s -- Trump on the upper side and Clinton on the low end -- with a fairly significant chunk of support going to third party candidates or remaining undecided. But second, Ivan Moore has dominated the polling Alaska. The only bit of diversity comes from a couple of internet-based polls. There is some wiggle room in Alaska as a result. That volatility makes this one something of a tough read even if Trump has consistently led.


Colorado:
The Gravis poll out of Colorado...

Well, it should be said before digging in that this series of Gravis/Breitbart surveys like a couple last week is built on a sample of registered rather than likely voters. There are a few here and there, but most firms have long since shifted to a likely voter screen. In the past that transition had favored the Republican candidate, but in 2016, the results were/have been mixed as to the true effect.

In any event, this poll is not consistent with the pair of double digit leads Clinton had in the Centennial state earlier this week, but they do reflect the just immediately prior polls showing a narrow lead changing hands. It should additionally be pointed out that there has been a four point swing toward Clinton from the last (late September) poll Gravis conducted versus this one. That move is consistent with what has been witnessed in Colorado and elsewhere in the polls since the first debate.


Florida:
Another day, another poll showing a narrow Clinton lead in the Sunshine state. That does not do much to dislodge Florida from the position it has taken up of late; namely a Clinton +2 advantage. The last Gravis survey of Florida way back in June found Trump up four points.


Ohio:
In the Buckeye state, the FHQ average continues to climb but at a pretty slow clip. Although the margin is still the same in the new TargetSmart poll of Ohio -- both candidate added three points worth of support in the last two plus weeks -- it marks the fourth poll this week to show Clinton up by a hair. Still, Ohio is quite competitive as it remains on the Watch List (close to crossing over the partisan line into Toss Up Trump territory albeit with the caveat that the average is moving in the opposite direction).


Oregon:
Yes, this Gravis poll pulls Oregon back under the Strong/Lean line on the Clinton side of the partisan line, but it fails to really shake the Beaver state from its moorings huddled around that line. It was just earlier this week that Oregon shift just barely into the Strong Clinton category; all while continuing to be listed on the Watch List.


Virginia:
First, the initial thing that jumps out about the latest Hampton survey of the Old Dominion is how significantly it shifted from the slight two point edge Clinton had in the late August poll there. That is a 13 point swing with Clinton gaining ever so slightly, but the bottom dropping out on Trump (-10). The polling overall has moved in Clinton's direction, but the span between these two polls encompasses not only the post-debate shift, but also Clinton's slide during the back half of September.  In truth both Hampton surveys have been outliers when compared to the other polls released in Virginia around them.


Wisconsin:
The survey work in the Badger state has tended to be dominated by the Marquette series. As such it is nice to see another firm weigh in there. But the new offering from Gravis is a touch outside the tied to Clinton +5 range that has emerged since the end of September. There really could be quite a bit more polling in Wisconsin. It is one of those Rust Belt-type blue states that Republicans were targeting but just has not seen as much polling as, say, Ohio and Pennsylvania in the same category.


--
Alaska and Oregon changed categories, but even those two were more of the same. Both have been around the Strong/Lean lines on opposite sides of the partisan line. Colorado joins Alaska in sliding off the Watch List and on the Spectrum there was nothing more than the trading of a slot.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102 (13)	WA-12 (162)	PA-20 (263)	SC-9 (154)	MT-3 (53)
HI-4 (17)	NJ-14 (176)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	AK-3 (145)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	OR-7 (183)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	TX-38 (142)	ND-3 (44)
CA-55 (75)	NM-5 (188)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	MS-6 (104)	KY-8 (41)
MA-11 (86)	ME-23 (190)	OH-18 (334 | 222)	IN-11 (98)	NE-53 (33)
NY-29+13 (116)	MN-10 (200)	NV-6 (340 | 204)	KS-6 (87)	AL-9 (28)
IL-20 (136)	WI-10 (210)	IA-6 (198)	UT-6 (81)	OK-7 (19)
DE-3 (139)	MI-16 (226)	AZ-11 (192)	LA-8 (75)	ID-4 (12)
CT-7 (146)	VA-13 (239)	GA-16 (181)	TN-11 (67)	WV-5 (8)
RI-4 (150)	NH-4 (243)	MO-10+13 (165)	SD-3 (56)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Maine CD2	from Lean Trump	to Toss Up Trump
Mississippi	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/7/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/6/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/5/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.