New State Polls (10/9/16)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
10/3-10/5
|
+/- 3.7%
|
700 likely voters
|
45
|
42
|
4
|
+3
|
+2.06
| |
Iowa
|
10/3-10/6
|
+/- 3.9%
|
642 likely voters
|
39
|
43
|
7
|
+4
|
+1.08
| |
Ohio
|
10/5-10/7
|
+/- 3.9%
|
997 likely voters
|
46
|
42
|
3
|
+4
|
+0.76
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/3-10/6
|
+/- 3.7%
|
709 registered voters
|
49
|
37
|
3
|
+12
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/5-10/7
|
+/- 4.2%
|
997 registered voters
|
48
|
40
|
4
|
+8
|
+5.36
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/5-10/7
|
+/- 4.3%
|
993 registered voters
|
43
|
39
|
11
|
+4
|
+6.17
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
On the day of the second presidential debate -- the town hall at Washington University in St. Louis -- there were six new poll releases in five battleground states. The three Rust Belt surveys in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from YouGov were in the field Friday night after the release of the Trump tape. That said, it is likely a bit premature to read too much into that. Again, this is more about establishing a baseline heading into the debate (or before any tape-related changes begin showing up).
Florida:
Four of the five Sunshine state polls in the field completely after the first presidential debate have had Clinton up anywhere from two to five points. The only blip in that is a Trump +1 from landline-only Emerson. And this new survey from Marist fits right in that range, nudging the average up by just a slight amount. The bottom line remains the same in Florida: Clinton is up by a couple of points.
Iowa:
The Hawkeye state has settled in a one of the few swing states favoring Trump, but it has stuck there and the first Des Moines Register survey of the general election does not deviate from that trend. However, Iowa is one to watch when and if any effects are felt in the wake of these tapes if not the second debate. Although there has not been a ton of polling out of Iowa, it has hovered in that Trump +1 area -- on again, off again on the Watch List -- for a while now. If things shift any more in Clinton's direction, Iowa is next in line. That would bring all of the Obama 2012 states back into Clinton's column (while adding North Carolina).
Ohio:
The YouGov poll of Ohio represents the fifth consecutive poll (five of six since the first debate) in which Clinton has led. But those are all rather tight. Only this poll has anything more than a three point advantage for the former Secretary of State. And that has translated to a slow build of her very narrow lead in the Buckeye state; still under one point in the FHQ averages.
Pennsylvania:
Things in Pennsylvania are beginning to look an awful lot like they did there in the aftermath of convention season. In other words, the Keystone state appears to be slipping further and further away from Trump, greatly reducing the combinations of ways in which the New York businessman can get to 270 electoral votes. In truth, the path to Pennsylvania runs Colorado and New Hampshire as well now, not to mention the four other Toss Up Clinton states. Realistically, Trump is going to have to have things swing about four points in his direction at the very least to make things interesting. At this point, that does not seem to be in the offing.
Wisconsin:
As was mentioned a day ago, there have been a minimal number of pollsters engaged in Wisconsin this year. Today brings another firm online there. And the first YouGov survey is consistent with the most of the polls conducted in the Badger state since late August. Seven of the nine polls since then have shown a Clinton advantage of five points or less. That has had the effect of reducing her average lead there in the FHQ averages. However, Wisconsin remains just off Watch List and on the Clinton side of both Pennsylvania and Virginia for now.
--
There were minimal changes based on this handful of battleground state polls. The Watch List was trimmed to just eight states (and Maine's second congressional district) and just two of those -- Nevada and Ohio -- are on the cusp of jumping over the partisan line and reshaping the distribution of electoral votes. On the Spectrum, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire traded spots, and for the second day in a row, Michigan and Wisconsin swapped positions. All four are Lean Clinton states.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
SC-9
(154)
|
MT-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(145)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
TX-38
(142)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
MS-6
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
ME-23
(190)
|
OH-18
(334 | 222)
|
IN-11
(98)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
MN-10
(200)
|
NV-6
(340 | 204)
|
KS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
MI-16
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
UT-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16
(181)
|
TN-11
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
MO-10+13
(165)
|
SD-3
(56)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Maine CD2
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/8/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/7/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/6/16)
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