New State Polls (11/1/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
10/29-10/30
|
+/-4.12%
|
550 likely voters
|
41
|
45
|
8
|
+4
|
+1.19
| |
California
|
10/28-10/31
|
+/-3.6%
|
747 likely voters
|
56
|
35
|
4
|
+21
|
+23.04
| |
Illinois
|
10/26-10/27
|
+/-4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
48
|
37
|
10
|
+11
|
--
| |
Illinois
|
10/27-10/30
|
+/-4.3%
|
500 likely voters
|
53
|
41
|
2
|
+11
|
+15.08
| |
Kentucky
|
10/26-10/28
|
+/-3.44%
|
811 likely voters
|
32
|
56
|
5
|
+24
|
--
| |
Kentucky
|
10/25-10/30
|
+/-4.0%
|
602 likely voters
|
37
|
54
|
6
|
+17
|
+19.71
| |
Maine
|
10/24-10/26
|
+/-3.4%
|
812 likely voters
|
42
|
37
|
9
|
+5
|
--
| |
Maine
|
10/28-10/30
|
+/-3.5%
|
750 likely voters
|
46
|
42
|
5
|
+4
|
+6.75
| |
Maine CD1
|
10/24-10/26
|
+/-4.7%
|
429 likely voters
|
45
|
33
|
9
|
+12
|
--
| |
Maine CD1
|
10/28-10/30
|
+/-5.0%
|
375 likely voters
|
49
|
43
|
4
|
+6
|
+15.10
| |
Maine CD2
|
10/24-10/26
|
+/-5.0%
|
382 likely voters
|
38
|
41
|
9
|
+3
|
--
| |
Maine CD2
|
10/28-10/30
|
+/-5.0%
|
375 likely voters
|
44
|
42
|
6
|
+2
|
+3.06
| |
Michigan
|
10/31
|
+/-3.61%
|
737 likely voters
|
50
|
43
|
3
|
+7
|
+6.88
| |
Missouri
|
10/28-10/31
|
+/-4.9%
|
405 likely voters
|
38
|
52
|
4
|
+14
|
+7.51
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/26-10/28
|
+/-5.1%
|
408 likely voters
|
43
|
45
|
4
|
+2
|
--
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/26-10/30
|
+/-3.9%
|
641 likely voters
|
46
|
39
|
5
|
+7
|
+5.79
| |
North Carolina
|
10/23-10/27
|
+/-3.7%
|
710 likely voters
|
42
|
41
|
12
|
+1
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
10/28-10/31
|
+/-3.7%
|
718 likely voters
|
44
|
51
|
3
|
+7
|
+1.55
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/26-10/30
|
+/-5.1%
|
652 likely voters
|
49
|
38
|
7
|
+11
|
+5.53
| |
Texas
|
10/27-10/29
|
+/-3.13%
|
980 likely voters
|
39
|
52
|
4
|
+13
|
+6.96
| |
Virginia
|
10/27-10/30
|
+/-3.5%
|
1024 likely voters
|
48
|
42
|
1
|
+6
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
10/28-10/30
|
+/-3.4%
|
800 likely voters
|
49
|
45
|
2
|
+4
|
+6.70
| |
--
Changes (11/1/16)
One more week.
The map holds steady at 340-198. However, the bevy of new polls pushed New Hampshire back onto the Watch List. The Granite state is now within a point of the Lean/Toss Up line on Clinton's side of the Spectrum below. Despite all the poll releases, the movement on the Electoral College Spectrum from a day ago was minimal. Michigan and Maine traded positions in the Lean Clinton area and Kentucky likewise was nudged past Nebraska on the far right end of the Spectrum.
It is notable that all of the blue states above with exception of Pennsylvania saw their FHQ average margins slightly decrease upon the introduction of these new polls to the dataset. Most of that shift is attributable to Trump gains rather than Clinton declines across those states. Clinton continues to have less variable numbers while Trump continues to climb/consolidate Republican support as election day nears.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
RI-4
(162)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
TX-38
(161)
|
TN-11
(61)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
MO-10
(123)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
SC-9
(113)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
UT-6
(104)
|
NE-53
(41)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
MN-10
(198)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
IN-11
(98)
|
KY-8
(36)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(214)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20+13
(136)
|
ME-23
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
ID-4
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
VA-13
(229)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
SD-3
(75)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
WI-10
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
LA-8
(72)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(158)
|
NH-4
(243)
|
AK-3
(164)
|
MT-3
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
Happy Halloween, 2016
The Electoral College Map (10/31/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/30/16)
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