New State Polls (11/3/16)
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State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
10/29-10/31
|
+/-3.0%
|
2229 likely voters
|
45
|
44
|
0
|
+1
|
--
| |
Arizona
|
10/30-11/1
|
+/-3.7%
|
719 likely voters
|
40
|
45
|
1
|
+5
|
+1.46
| |
Arkansas
|
10/18-10/27
|
+/-4.1%
|
585 likely voters
|
31
|
51
|
18
|
+20
|
+11.64
| |
California
|
10/25-10/31
|
--
|
1498 likely voters
|
53
|
33
|
7
|
+20
|
+22.88
| |
Colorado
|
10/17-10/24
|
--
|
1004 adults
|
44
|
34
|
0
|
+10
|
--
| |
Colorado
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-4.38%
|
500 likely voters
|
44
|
38
|
7
|
+6
|
+4.18
| |
Florida
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-4.0%
|
603 likely voters
|
49
|
45
|
2
|
+4
|
+2.09
| |
Georgia
|
10/30-11/1
|
+/-3.7%
|
707 likely voters
|
44
|
45
|
1
|
+1
|
+3.05
| |
Michigan
|
11/2
|
+/-2.89%
|
1150 likely voters
|
47
|
44
|
2
|
+3
|
+7.04
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/29-11/1
|
+/-4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
39
|
40
|
4
|
+1
|
--
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/31-11/2
|
+/-4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
43
|
48
|
4
|
+5
|
--
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/31-11/2
|
+/-4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
42
|
42
|
8
|
+/-0
|
+5.09
| |
North Carolina
|
10/27-11/1
|
+/-2.88%
|
1150 likely voters
|
44
|
49
|
3
|
+5
|
+1.45
| |
Texas
|
10/30-11/1
|
+/-3.8%
|
679 likely voters
|
40
|
49
|
1
|
+9
|
--
| |
Texas
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/-3.6%
|
700 likely voters
|
35
|
49
|
8
|
+14
|
+7.51
| |
Utah
|
10/29-10/31
|
+/-4.0%
|
750 likely voters
|
31
|
42
|
2
|
+11
|
--
| |
Utah
|
10/30-11/2
|
+/-4.9%
|
402 likely voters
|
31
|
37
|
2
|
+6
|
--
| |
Utah
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
20
|
40
|
8
|
+20
|
+9.861
| |
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 8.00 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 21% in the Rassmussen survey, 24% support in the Monmouth survey and 28% in the Emerson poll. He currently has an FHQ graduated weighted average share of support of 22.81%, trailing both Trump and Clinton.
| |||||||||
--
Changes (11/3/16)
5 days to go.
Another fairly busy day brought 18 surveys from eleven different states. For the most part the drift toward Trump continued, but that trend was clearer in some states than others. It was a bad day for Clinton, for example, in New Hampshire where a trio of polls found her tied or behind the New York businessman. What is interesting about New Hampshire is that it had been rather impervious to Trump for Clinton. Through that late September period before the first debate when the former Secretary of State's fortunes were ebbing, her support in the Granite state barely budged. That is different now. Although the tide has turned, the echo of the older data is keeping Clinton's advantage there comfortable enough. It is notable, though, that Pennsylvania and New Hampshire swapped spots on the Electoral College Spectrum. Typically those within category shifts are pretty minor, but any movement among states near or next to the tipping point state is worth highlighting.
But that tipping point state -- Colorado -- is back on the list of states with new polls today. While the Centennial state turned in a decent day for Trump yesterday -- pulling closer but not into the lead -- it reversed course today with a couple of wider margins in Clinton's favor. Yes, one of those is dated, but that poll plus another Clinton +6 was enough to ease Colorado back onto the Watch List. If Trump is going to get to 270, the shortest path will be to sweep the toss ups and take the two states above -- Colorado and New Hampshire -- where the durability of Clinton's leads has faltered to some degree. That is still a tall order, but not as tall as it once was. And mind you, that path heads straight up to the top of the middle column in the Spectrum in order.
The only other change was in Utah. The Beehive state switched places with Indiana on the Spectrum at the far end of the Lean Trump category. It is worth noting that Trump has consolidated enough support in Utah to push back within range of 40 percent. No, that does not look great, but when one's main rivals in the state are roughly splitting the remaining 60 percent, then one is in good enough shape to win. [Incidentally, that same sort of Trump consolidation seems to be at work in Texas. But instead of topping out at 40 percent as in Utah, he is closing in on 50 percent. Gone are those recent polls that had Trump and Clinton tight in the low to mid-40s in the Lone Star state.]
The map and the 340-198 electoral vote distribution remain the same as they have, but that is more a function of there being no new surveys in Ohio and Nevada and a favorable Clinton poll in North Carolina. If any states are going to flip given the current trajectory of the race, then it will be those three. Florida remains slightly more insulated, but could be considered a fourth state, taking things right up to that tipping point.
--
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
RI-4
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
TX-38
(161)
|
TN-11
(61)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
SC-9
(123)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
MO-10
(114)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
NE-53
(41)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
MN-10
(198)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
UT-6
(93)
|
KY-8
(36)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(214)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20+13
(136)
|
ME-23
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
ID-4
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
SD-3
(75)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
LA-8
(72)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(158)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
AK-3
(164)
|
MT-3
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/2/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/1/16)
Happy Halloween, 2016
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